Tag Archives: CBO

Delay of ObamaCare employer mandate to cost government $10 billion, report says

US-POLITICS-JOB-OBAMAAs a result of the employer delay and other last-minute changes, the CBO said Tuesday that cost of expanding coverage for the uninsured will rise to $1.375 billion from 2014-2023, an increase of less than 1 percent from its previous estimate in May.

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Source: FULL ARTICLE at Fox News – Politics

As ACA Implementation Continues, Consumer Health Care Cost Growth Has Slowed

By Alan Krueger

Prices for personal consumption expenditures (PCE) on health care goods and services rose just 1.1 percent over the twelve months ending in May 2013, the slowest rate of increase in nearly 50 years. The slowdown in PCE health care inflation has been widespread, with important contributions from two large components: hospital and nursing home services (which comprise 42 percent of total health care expenditures) and outpatient services (which comprise 34 percent of total health care expenditures). As the chart below shows, since March 2010, these two components of health spending have made notably smaller contributions to overall consumer health care inflation than in previous years.

The slowdown in consumer health care price inflation is consistent with a broad array of other evidence suggesting that the growth rate of health care costs is slowing:

  • Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Employer Costs for Employee Compensation survey indicate that for private sector employers offering health insurance, the annualized growth rate of real (inflation-adjusted) costs for workers’ health insurance has slowed from 2.2 percent a year from 2006:Q4 to 2009:Q4 to 1.8 percent a year from 2009:Q4 to 2012:Q4, with a particularly marked slowdown occurring at smaller establishments. For establishments with fewer than 50 employees, employers’ real costs for workers’ health insurance grew just 1.0 percent a year from 2009:Q4 to 2012:Q4, half the rate observed over the preceding three years.
  • During the past several years, the Congressional Budget Office reports that it “has made a series of downward adjustments to its projections of spending for Medicaid and Medicare.” For example, “mostly reflecting the slower growth in the programs’ spending in recent years,” CBO now expects combined spending on the two programs to be about $200 billion lower in 2020 than what it forecast three years ago.
  • From 2009 to 2011, nationwide real per capita health expenditures grew at the slowest pace since reporting began in 1960.
  • In 2012, premium growth for employer-sponsored insurance was at its lowest rate (3 percent) since the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey started in 1996.

  • In 13 states that have publicly reported premiums for 2014, the average of the lowest-cost plan is nearly 20 percent below projections based on CBO premiums. This includes New York State, which recently announced that health insurance rates in 2014 will be at least 50 percent lower, on average, than the plans currently available in the state. These substantially more affordable plans will soon be available through the new Health Insurance Marketplace established by the Affordable Care Act.

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Source: FULL ARTICLE at The White House

Elizabeth Warren: Student Loan Profits ‘Morally Wrong’

By The Huffington Post News Editors

The Obama administration and Congress are not helping students, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) charged Wednesday, reaping record profits off the federal student loan program that a regulator said has finally surpassed $1 trillion in overall debt.

The federal government is due to book $51 billion in profit this year off new and existing federal student loans, according to estimates by the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office. The record amount brings the government’s profit haul to nearly $120 billion over the past five years, according to CBO forecasts and Department of Education budget documents. The CBO estimates that the government will generate $184 billion in profit for new loans made this fiscal year through 2023.

“Instead of helping our students, the government is making a profit on student loans,” Warren said of the profit figures during a conference filled with young people. “That is wrong. It is morally wrong. That is obscene.”

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Source: FULL ARTICLE at Huffington Post

Obama’s Culture War Will Be His Undoing

By John Careccia

Hennessey Venom GT

Democratic strategists have always said that elections can be won by espousing gun control, doubting the existence of God, and fighting for Gay rights. They put forward that platform in 2004 and again in 2008. The only difference is that in 2008, they also had George Bush to blame for all the ills the American people were feeling at the time. So Obama and the Democrats promised to pull America from the brink of Depression as long as the government was able to spend $875 billion.

Fast-forward to the third month of President Obama’s second term. Suddenly, the Democrats’ stance is not looking so good anymore. It’s not hard to see why they’re changing gears to fight a culture war of their own choosing.

They promised the economy would rebound in 4 years. The U.S. economy is still suffering through the weakest economic recovery since the Great Depression. In some areas of the country, they are still suffering the effects of the recession. Unemployment is stubbornly high, especially for Black Americans and others age 25 to 54, who make up the core of the nation’s would-be workforce. All of the polls show that the American public does not approve of Obama’s bumbling and ineffectual attempts to handle the economy.

Obama’s signature domestic accomplishment, the Affordable Healthcare Act (Obamacare), is becoming more and more unpopular as the many parts of the law are exposed for the burdens they are. Health care premiums are rising fast, as its opponents predicted and the CBO confirmed; and now even the Nanny Press is being forced to highlight how the law is either discouraging new hiring altogether or forcing more Americans to accept part-time work to stay employed. The key component of the law, the state-based insurance exchanges, are supposed to be up and running in just over seven months; and no one at the state level believes they will be functioning properly. Many states have chosen not to fund the changeover. In the words of the federal bureaucrat in charge of implementing the exchanges, “I am no longer trying to make these exchanges provide a ‘world-class experience,’ but instead merely hoping they won’t provide ‘a Third World experience.’” Suddenly, guns, God, and gays are looking better and better to Democratic strategists.

On Saturday, Obama devoted his weekly radio address to proposed new gun control laws (including background checks, which everyone agrees would not have prevented the tragedy in Newtown) and the restoration of a demonstrably ineffective assault weapons ban that expired in 2004. None of this will do anything to attack the true cause of senseless slaughter and mass shootings. It is not the tool, but the person using the tool that needs to be addressed. Given that nearly all gun violence is perpetrated with handguns — not long guns and not so-called “assault weapons” — it is evident that Obama’s new focus on guns is designed not so much to prevent gun deaths, but rather to energize Nanny-driven Democratic voters who look down their noses at gun …read more
Source: FULL ARTICLE at Western Journalism

Arkansas: Replacing Medicaid Expansion with Obamacare's Exchanges Could Require 'No Additional Federal Costs At All'

By Avik Roy, Contributor

In late February, Arkansas Governor Mike Beebe (D.) announced that he had struck a deal with the Obama administration to implement Obamacare’s expansion of health insurance coverage using the law’s subsidized private-sector insurance exchanges, instead of using the 1965-vintage Medicaid program. If implemented, this deal would result in far better health coverage for the poor. But the Congressional Budget Office has estimated that such coverage would cost federal taxpayers 50 percent more than Medicaid would. Yesterday, the Arkansas Department of Human Services released its own fiscal estimate of exchange expansion. Contrary to CBO, the state estimates that expanding the exchanges “would add less than 15% to federal health-care costs in Arkansas,” adding that “in some realistic scenarios, there could be no additional federal costs at all.” Arkansas’ analysis, if correct, could transform the shape and scope of Obamacare’s coverage expansion. …read more
Source: FULL ARTICLE at Forbes Latest

Feb. Treasury Budget Shows Slower Spending Growth

By 24/7 Wall St.

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The U.S. budget deficit is a narrower $493.95 billion for the first 5 months of the year versus $580.82 billion for the same 5-month period a year ago. The news sequestration and the resolution to the fiscal cliff may have helped in this matter, although it seems that higher tax revenues are unlikely to bring Democrats and Republicans any closer together. Tax receipts are up 13% so far to $1.01 trillion.

February’s budget deficit was $203.54 billion versus almost $231.7 billion for the same month a year ago. Bloomberg was calling for a deficit of some $205 billion. Should we bother mentioning that this year’s February had one day less in it? Federal spending was up 2% to $1.505 trillion. So what you are seeing is slower spending growth, but not slower spending.

It is hard to celebrate close to $100 billion less when you consider that the run rate on a straight-line is still in the range of close to a $1.2 trillion deficit even if recent projections from the CBO appear to finally be under $1 trillion (almost $850 billion). As per the “straight-line” estimate, that is if the rates were averaged from the first five months and annualized on a static 12-month basis.

Today’s report is on the heels of a Republican budget proposal aiming at $4.6 trillion in spending cuts along with a tax code revision. Democrats seem very unlikely to jump on board. We are still of course awaiting a White House budget proposal and the nation has now operated for four years without a budget.

By the way, we have still been given no explanation from the great profitable and “independent” U.S. Postal Service how they added some 4,500 workers to their payrolls in February.

Filed under: 24/7 Wall St. Wire, Economy, Politics

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Source: FULL ARTICLE at DailyFinance

Budget Deficit Up Sharply But Lower Than Last Year's Pace

By The Associated Press

biudget deficit february up sharply

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Rep. Paul Ryan, R-Wis., holds up a copy of the House Budget Committee 2014 Budget Resolution during a news conference on Capitol Hill on Tuesday. Projections by the Congressional Budget Office suggest the federal deficit grew sharply in February. (Carolyn Kaster/AP)

WASHINGTON — The federal deficit likely grew sharply in February from January but stayed below last year’s pace through the first five months of the budget year. Higher taxes and an improving economy are expected to keep the annual deficit below $1 trillion, the first time that has happened since President Barack Obama took office.

The Congressional Budget Office projects deficit grew by $205 billion in February. That’s down $27 billion from the same month a year ago. The government recorded a small surplus of nearly $3 billion in January.

For the period October through February, the CBO projects a deficit of $495 billion. That would be $86 billion lower than the same period a year ago. The government‘s budget year runs from Oct. 1 to Sept. 30.

Last month, the CBO released its estimate of the deficit for the entire budget year, projecting it would total $845 billion. Even with the improvement, the government would be required to borrow 24 cents of every dollar it spends this year.

That estimate doesn’t reflect the $44 billion of across-the-board spending cuts that kicked in March 1. Those cuts many reduce the deficit further. But their impact won’t appear in February’s total.

The monthly budget update from the Treasury Department comes as both the White House and GOP leaders in Congress are renewing their efforts to reach agreement on a broad deal to reduce the deficit. But so far, both sides are staking out familiar turf.

GOP Rep. Paul Ryan, chairman of the House Budget Committee, on Tuesday introduced a plan that would sharply cut taxes and spending in an effort to balance the budget in 10 years. President Barack Obama campaigned against Ryan’s approach in 2012, when he ran against former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney and Ryan was the GOP vice-presidential nominee.

Obama met with Senate Democrats on Capitol Hill as part of a broader outreach effort to members of both parties. Senate Democrats plan to introduce a counterproposal to Ryan’s budget on Wednesday that will include $975 billion in higher taxes, which Republicans steadfastly oppose.

The deficit is the amount the government must borrow when its expenses exceed its revenue. Each month’s deficit is volatile and can be affected by calendar quirks that shift government spending or revenue from one month to another.

Modest economic growth has boosted federal tax receipts. And the Treasury Department has also issued about $20 billion less in tax refunds in January and February compared to the same two months last year. That’s because the White House and Congress didn’t agree on tax policy until Jan. 1.<br …read more
Source: FULL ARTICLE at DailyFinance

How to Profit From the Myth of Overpopulation

By Katie Spence, The Motley Fool

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If you asked the average person on the street if America is overpopulated and the birth rate is too high, you’d likely receive “Yes” as your answer. However, that answer is wrong. In fact, America is seeing a decline in birth rates and there is now real fear that an aging population may not being having enough children to replace today’s working force. Economically, this is bad and will present a number of challenges in the future. But from an investing standpoint, this demographic shift could prove beneficial to savvy investors, as companies that cater to the mature population stand to benefit from an increasing median age. Here’s what you need to know:

The shift
Between 2007-2010, the U.S. birth rate dropped 8% to the lowest it’s been since the 1920s, and the overall birth rate in 2011 was 63.2% per 1,000 women of childbearing age, according to the Pew Research Center. This is in comparison to the overall birth rate in 1957, which peaked at 122.7 births per 1,000 women, to make up approximately 78 million baby boomers. 

Additionally, the population aged 18-44 had a growth rate of 0.6% from 2000 to 2010, while the population aged 45-65 grew at a rate of 31.5%, and the population aged 65+ grew at a rate of 15.1%, according to the U.S. Census Brief. These figures increased the median age of Americans to a new high of 37.3 years of age. Moreover, an increasing birth rate of males to females — 105 males to every 100 females — further complicates a declining and aging population.   

The problems
There are a number of reasons why the above statistics are concerning. First, the Congressional Budget Office estimates that by 2037 the Social Security trust fund will be exhausted, and that in 2015 Social Security will run deficits through the CBO‘s projection of 75 years. This is because between 2010-2030 the number of people age 65 or older is expected to increase 76%, while the number of people working will only increase 8%. The following table shows the breakdown of Social Security. Numbers are expressed in billions of constant 2010 dollars: 


Tax Revenue


Annual Surplus/Deficit

Cash Flow Surplus/Deficit

Trust Fund Balance











































Source: CRS, based on data from the 2010 Annual Report of the Board of Trustees of the Federal Old-Age and Survivors Insurance and Federal Disability Insurance Trust Funds; August 5, 2010; table VI.F7.

Understandably, the above information is concerning for anyone relying on Social Security for their retirement.

Second, if we examine these statistics in light of what’s happening in Japan — which is further along in terms of a declining birth rate and aging population, we see that the impact on …read more
Source: FULL ARTICLE at DailyFinance

Press Briefing by Press Secretary Jay Carney, 03/04/2013

By The White House

James S. Brady Press Briefing Room

12:20 P.M. EST

MR. CARNEY: Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you for being here. I just want to note the President has a Cabinet meeting at 1:00 p.m., so we're going to need to move through this quickly. I will try to be precise and concise in my answers and move around as quickly as I can. And for that reason, I have no topper.

Associated Press.

Q Thank you. Now that the sequester cuts have begun to take effect I'm wondering what we should be expecting from the White House. Are officials going to be trying to point out negative impacts of the sequester? Is there any effort that's going to be underway to try to build some type of public reaction to pressure Washington to avert these cuts?

MR. CARNEY: We made clear that the imposition of the sequester will have serious consequences for middle-class Americans across the country. The sequester will have serious consequences for Defense Department contractors, civilian workers, and for our defense readiness. It will have serious consequences for families whose child will lose a Head Start slot, for workers on the border — border security agents, for air traffic controllers who will have their hours cut.

And I'm sure you will be hearing about these impacts from Americans themselves who will wonder why Republicans made this choice, why they wouldn't go along with what they did two months ago, why they wouldn't go along with balanced deficit reduction, why they chose protecting tax loopholes for the few rather than protecting the jobs of the many or protecting our economy.

There have been and there will be specific effects that we'll see, and there will be the overall effect, which I don't think anybody argues with — CBO, Macroeconomics Advisers, Moody’s, others have estimated that we will lose up to three-quarters of a million jobs because of sequester, if it stays in place, and our economy will grow by a full half a percentage point more slowly than it would have otherwise — or more.

We'll continue to talk about this because it’s bad for the country. It’s unnecessary. It’s a self-inflicted wound on the economy. But we'll also continue to work on those things that the American people expect us to work on — on creating jobs, growing the economy, making sure that we get comprehensive immigration reform, making sure that we move forward towards getting a comprehensive set of initiatives in place to reduce gun violence, and other things.

Q What was the President asking from lawmakers he talked to on Saturday? And can we also get a list of the lawmakers that he called?

MR. CARNEY: The President had conversations with Republicans and Democrats over the weekend about the sequester specifically, and the broader issue of balanced deficit reduction. And he spoke here the other day about believing that there …read more
Source: FULL ARTICLE at The White House Press Office

The Sequester Is Pro-Growth, Not Armageddon

By Breaking News

Dollar Bills SC The Sequester Is Pro Growth, Not Armageddon

The Pro-Growth Sequester No, it’s not Armageddon.

The Obama administration is whipping up hysteria over the sequester budget cuts and their impact on the economy, the military, first providers, and so forth and so on. Armageddon.

But if you climb into the CBO numbers for 2013, you see a much lighter and easier picture than all the worst-case scenarios being conjured up by the administration.

For example, the $85 billion so-called spending cut is actually budget authority, not budget outlays.

According to the CBO, budget outlays will come down by $44 billion, or one quarter of 1 percent of GDP. (GDP is $15.8 trillion.)

Read More at investors.com . By Lawrence Kudlow.

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Source: FULL ARTICLE at Western Journalism

Press Briefing by Press Secretary Jay Carney, 2/21/2013

By The White House

James S. Brady Press Briefing Room

1:30 P.M. EST

MR. CARNEY: In the chart behind me you can find in a link from the blog post that we just put up on whitehouse.gov and that I tweeted, written by Communications Director Jen Palmieri. That blog post is a refresher about the President’s plan to eliminate the sequester and reduce our deficit beyond even the deficit reduction called for by the sequester.

To those of you who have covered this it will be familiar, because that plan has been on the table and an offer for quite some time. And we know and you know that leaders in Congress are aware of this because they were on the receiving end of the offer and that offer remains on the table.

If you note, in this particular chart, a couple of interesting facts. The first is that from 2009, when the deficit was the largest as a result of the Great Recession, we have seen a decrease in the size of the deficit that represents the largest reduction since the end of World War II. What you see beyond that in the projections, which are administration calculations based on the CBO baseline, is what would happen to the deficit as a share of GDP if the President’s plan — the offer to Speaker Boehner — were implemented.

And as you can see, we would be, beginning in 2015, we would reduce further — in 2013, 2014, and beginning in 2015, through the decade, we would see the deficit as a share of GDP coming in under 3 percent, which is a sort of magic number for economists in terms of stabilization of our debt-to-GDP ratio, which is very important — deficit-to-GDP ratio.

So I encourage you, for those of who need a refresher, to take a look at the documents online — at the charts as well as Jen’s blog post. That's point number one.

Point number two, many of you have asked — because I know you're intensely interested in process — when the President is going to or has most recently spoken to Republican leaders on the Hill. I can tell you that he placed calls earlier today to Senator McConnell and Speaker Boehner; had good conversations. But I have no further readout of those calls for you.

Number three, the President, as I think you know by now, will be visiting Newport News, Virginia next week to highlight the fact that there will be real-world impacts to the implementation of the sequester if that takes place, if Republicans choose to allow that to happen. There will be jobs on the line if the sequester takes place. And the President will, as he continues to do, call on Republicans in Congress to agree to avoid the sequester because it’s a wholly unnecessary self-inflicted wound on the economy if it were to take place.

And with that, I go to the Associated Press.

Q Jay, …read more
Source: FULL ARTICLE at The White House Press Office

The $995 billion Sequester Cut Is Actually a $110 Billion Spending Increase

By Paul Roderick Gregory, Contributor The Congressional Budget Office gives its baseline budget projections for fiscal years 2013 to 2023 in its February 5, 2013  Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2013 to 2023. Table 1-5 shows how the CBO incorporates the $55 billion per year in sequestered defense cuts and the $37 million per year in sequestered non-defense cuts into its projections of  discretionary spending. …read more
Source: FULL ARTICLE at Forbes Latest

Obama’s Most Audacious SOTU Lie

By Breaking News

Barack Obama speech 8 SC Obama’s Most Audacious SOTU Lie

It is difficult to say with certainly which of the many whoppers President Obama told tonight took the most crust to utter, but my money is going on this assertion, made a few minutes into the speech: “Already, the Affordable Care Act is helping to slow the growth of health care costs.” I know “Orwellian” has now become rather hackneyed, but there is simply no other adjective that better describes this statement. It is not merely a lie. It is the precise opposite of the truth. It is just as absurd as “war is peace” or “freedom is slavery.”

Portents of this stretcher began appearing over the weekend in the usual media outlets, and a particularly transparent harbinger appeared in Forbes of all places. In a column titled, “New Data Suggests Obamacare Is Actually Bending The Healthcare Cost Curve,” Rick Unger writes that “A new Congressional Budget Office report out last week has the healthcare world scratching its head over the possibility that Obamacare might—in part—be responsible for what is being described as a significant slowdown in the growth of healthcare costs in America.”

It hardly needs to be said that the report to which Unger refers fails to support his or the President’s claims. First of all, the slowdown began before Obamacare passed. Specifically, it began to manifest itself in an obvious way during 2009. Moreover, cost data are only available through last year: “National health expenditures grew at an estimated annual rate of 4.3 percent in 2012, a bit higher than the 3.9 percent experienced for each of the years 2009-2011. While this estimate is subject to revisions, it portends a fourth consecutive year of record-low growth.”

In other words, the President and his media toadies are crediting Obamacare with a slowdown that began a year before it passed and four years before the law took effect. Thus, having set the bait in his headline, Unger switches to the primary reason for the slowdown: “To be sure, a big part of the decline in healthcare spending is the result of the recession’s impact.… Indeed, up until this point, most analysts have agreed that the poor economy was pretty much the sole cause for the improvement we have seen in containing the explosion of healthcare spending.”

Unger makes much of the fact that Douglas Elmendorf, director of the CBO, is cautiously “willing to say that a ‘significant part’ of the savings are the result of structural change in how healthcare is now being delivered.” But even the New York Times admits that “A major question raised by Mr. Elmendorf and others is whether the spending will accelerate again. (It slowed in the 1990s only to pick up again last decade.)” The Gray Lady quotes former CBO director Douglas Holtz-Eakin thus: “Premature celebration never makes sense when it comes to health care.”

Read More at spectator.org . By David Catron.

Ain't No Way Gonna Get the Budget Deficit Under Control Long-Term

By Robert Lenzner, Forbes Staff President Obama and former President Clinton are adamantly warning that the devilish sequestering of the federal budget is a bout of austerity we should avoid at all costs.Think Britain,Italy, Spain, Greece. Think austerity equals slowdown equals unemployment equals expectation of lower profits. Sequester or no sequester the Congressional Budget Office(okay factor in grains of salt for predicting the future) heralds the first budget deficit under $1 trillion in 5 years if– and that’s the “if” Obama and Clinton want avoided– in order to get down to a deficit of hallelujah! only $845 billion.(see the charts published by the Washington Post’s Wonkblog) Herewith another bunch of ifs, ands or buts that impact the financial future: 1. CBO thinks the federal debt to GDP ratio will stick around 73% for the next 5 years– and not creep up to the 90%-100% troubling level that Harvard economist Ken Rogoff views as certain to stall economic growth. Only thing is CBO thinks the “debt-to-gdp ratio will then start rising again in the latter half of the decade.” 2. Here’s how that will happen. There will be more spending than revenues. So that the necessary match-up won’t take place and leave the deficit to keep growing. The only times they matched up was in 1965, 1968, and 1997, according to the CBO, which is considered politically independent, I am told. 3. The reason for the spread are two; the rise of health care and the net interest cost of servicing the increasing amount of federal debt. Indeed, they are both rising as a % of GDP, while “everything else is falling.” by 2020 CBO believes the US will be “spending as much on interest payments as we are on the Pentagon’s budget or on non-defense discretionary spending.” Ouch! And that’s even with interest rates on securities maturing in 10 years or less under 2%. 4. Here’s the killer as far as I’m concerned. You won’t hear this from Wall St. brokers flogging stocks. It will take 4 more years– until 2017– so a decade since the 2007 meltdown began– for the “economy to return to its full potential.” 5.Yes, growth will pick up AFTER 2014( you have to wait 2 more years) but unemployment won’t reach the 6.5% target for ceasing and desisting from QE until maybe 2016. It will only be 6.8% in the 4th quarter of 2015. The message; expect low interest rates for some time to come. We seem to be mired for at least 5 more years in slow growth that might require further trillions increasing the deficit. David Stockman, who was chief of the Office of Management and Budget in the Reagan administration, flatly predicts a “permanent and insurmountable” fiscal cliff in his new book, ” The Great Deformation, The Corruption of Capitalism in America.” The culprit; the dug-in policies about taxing and spending by the two political parties. Guess I’d rather see sequestering in staggered amounts over the next 4 years. …read more
Source: FULL ARTICLE at Forbes Latest

3 Social Security Shockers From the CBO's Latest Report

By Chuck Saletta, The Motley Fool

Social Security Trust Fund

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On Tuesday, The Congressional Budget Office updated its annual projections on the health of Social Security and its Trust Funds. In essence, if you’re still working and you’re depending on that program to cover your retirement — you’ll be in for a shock. Or three.

Shocker No. 1: It’s failing faster than even last year’s dire projection.

The table below shows the CBO‘s projections for combined Social Security Old Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance Trust Fund balances, with the 2012…

3 Social Security Shockers From the CBO’s Latest Report originally appeared on DailyFinance.com on 2013-02-08T06:00:00Z.

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Source: FULL ARTICLE at DailyFinance