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North Korea still far from backing up nuke threats

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North Korea‘s vow to restart its mothballed nuclear facilities raises fears about assembly lines churning out fuel for a fearsome arsenal of nuclear missiles. But it may actually be a sign that Pyongyang needs a lot more bomb fuel to back up its nuclear threats.

Despite the bluster, even if Pyongyang started work today on its reactor, it could be years before it completes the laborious process of creating more weaponized fuel. North Korea‘s announcement, experts say, is also likely an effort to boost fears meant to keep its leadership safe while trying to extract concessions from the U.S. and its allies.

North Korea has declared itself a nuclear power and threatened to expand its atomic arsenal after its third nuclear test in February sparked the recent rise in hostility on the Korean Peninsula. But that arsenal is estimated to be only a handful of crude devices.

To assemble a cache of weapons that would make it a true nuclear power, and to back up its threats, North Korean scientists need more bomb fuel — both for the weapons they hope to build and for the repeated tests required to perfect those weapons.

“Despite its recent threats, North Korea does not yet have much of a nuclear arsenal because it lacks fissile materials and has limited nuclear testing experience,” Siegfried Hecker, a nuclear scientist who has been regularly granted unusual access to the North’s nuclear facilities, said this week in answers posted to website of Stanford University’s Center for International Security and Cooperation.

North Korea nuclear capabilities are something of a mystery.

What is known is that it possesses the ability to produce both the fuels that can be used to make atomic bombs — plutonium and uranium.

This causes serious long-term worries following North Korea‘s announcement Tuesday that it is “readjusting and restarting” all facilities at its main Nyongbyon nuclear complex, including a plutonium reactor shut down six years ago as part of now-failed nuclear negotiations, and a uranium enrichment plant.

It may also be a sign of frustration from Pyongyang that weeks of posturing and threats haven’t driven U.S. and South Korean negotiators back to nuclear disarmament-for-aid talks.

“What they really want is a safety blanket and a blackmail tool,” Ralph Cossa, president of the Pacific Forum CSIS …read more

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SKorea's new leader faces NKorea nuke crisis

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Even before she takes office Monday as South Korea‘s first female president, Park Geun-hye’s campaign vow to soften Seoul’s current hard-line approach to rival North Korea is being tested by Pyongyang’s recent underground nuclear detonation.

Pyongyang, Washington, Beijing and Tokyo are all watching to see if Park, the daughter of a staunchly anti-communist dictator, pursues an ambitious engagement policy meant to ease five years of animosity on the divided peninsula or if she sticks with the tough stance of her fellow conservative predecessor, Lee Myung-bak.

Park’s decision is important because it will likely set the tone of the larger diplomatic approach that Washington and others take in stalled efforts to persuade North Korea to give up its nuclear weapons ambitions.

It will also be complicated by North Korea‘s warning of unspecified “second and third measures of greater intensity,” a threat that comes as Washington and others push for tightened U.N. sanctions as punishment for the Feb. 12 atomic test, the North’s third since 2006.

That test is seen as another step toward North Korea‘s goal of building a bomb small enough to be mounted on a missile that can hit the United States. The explosion, which Pyongyang called a response to U.S. hostility, triggered global outrage.

Park has said she won’t yet change her policy, which was built with the high probability of provocations from Pyongyang in mind. But some aren’t sure if engagement can work, given North Korea‘s choice of “bombs over electricity,” as American scientist Siegfried Hecker puts it.

“Normalization of relations, a peace treaty, access to energy and economic opportunities — those things that come from choosing electricity over bombs and have the potential of lifting the North Korean people out of poverty and hardship — will be made much more difficult, if not impossible, for at least the next five years,” Hecker, a regular visitor to North Korea, said in a posting on the website of Stanford University’s Center for International Security and Cooperation.

As she takes office, however, Park will be mindful that many South Koreans are frustrated at the state of inter-Korean relations after the Lee government’s five-year rule, which saw two nuclear tests, three long-range rocket launches and attacks blamed on North Korea that killed 50 South Koreans in 2010.

Park’s policy calls for strong defense but also for efforts to build trust through aid shipments, …read more
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Experts say North Korea nuclear test an 'important step towards weaponization'

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Experts say North Korea‘s successful detonation of a miniaturized nuclear device is concerning because it indicates the country may be getting closer to the ability to put a nuclear device on a missile.

North Korea drew worldwide condemnation Tuesday after it announced it had successfully conducted its third nuclear test, in direct defiance to U.N. Security Council orders to shut down its atomic activity or face more sanctions and international isolation.

North Korea expert Andrei Lankov tells Fox News that possession of such a “miniaturized” device would be necessary to create a nuclear warhead.

“It shows they are advancing their nuclear technology,” Lankov said.

He also noted the significance of the timing of the test, which came just months after North Korea‘s successful intercontinental ballistic missile test.

“It seems they are very close to being able to put a device on a missile,” Lankov said.

Peter Beck, an expert for Asia Society, tells Fox News the blast appears to be “significantly greater” than North Korea‘s past nuclear tests. He, too, said the test “…shows a greater commitment by North Korea to marry the missile and nuclear programs.”

President Obama was one of many world leaders to speak out against the test early Tuesday, calling it a “highly provocative act” and warning that the international community would act in response.

“These provocations do not make North Korea more secure,” the president said in a statement. “Far from achieving its stated goal of becoming a strong and prosperous nation, North Korea has instead increasingly isolated and impoverished its people through its ill-advised pursuit of weapons of mass destruction and their means of delivery.”

North Korea‘s official state media said the test was conducted in a safe manner and is aimed at coping with “outrageous” U.S. hostility that “violently” undermines the North’s peaceful, sovereign right to launch satellites. North Korea faced sanctions after a December launch of a rocket that the U.N. and Washington called a cover for a banned missile test. Pyongyang said it was a peaceful satellite launch.

Earlier Tuesday, South Korean, U.S. and Japanese seismic monitoring agencies said they detected an earthquake in North Korea with a magnitude between 4.9 and 5.2.

Annika Thunborg, who works for the Vienna-based UN nuclear monitoring agency the CTBTO, confirms to Fox News the blast was larger than past tests, measuring 4.9 seismically on the Richter scale. The country’s 2006 test, which was widely seen as a failure, measured 4.1 and the 2009 test measured 4.5.

Thunborg also says they are trying to find out if enriched uranium was used in this test. This would be significant as the first two tests used North Korea‘s plutonium stocks which are being depleted. Uranium could be derived from a new nuclear method and those supplies could be renewed.

The North said it used a “lighter, miniaturized atomic bomb” that still has more explosive force than past tests. North Korea is estimated to have enough weaponized plutonium for four to eight bombs, according to American nuclear scientist Siegfried Hecker. However, it is not known whether North Korean scientists …read more
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NKorean uranium nuclear test would raise stakes

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As North Korea warns that it plans its third nuclear test since 2006, outside governments and analysts are trying to determine a crucial question: Just what will Pyongyang’s scientists explode?

The last two tests are believed to have been of plutonium devices, but the next logical step for Pyongyang’s ambitious nuclear program could be to conduct a highly enriched uranium explosion. That would be a major accomplishment for North Korea — and a worrying development that would raise already high stakes for the United States and its allies.

Here’s why:

EASY TO HIDE:

Nuclear bombs can be produced with highly enriched uranium or plutonium. North Korea is believed to have exploded plutonium devices in the two tests it has conducted so far, in 2006 and 2009.

Uranium bombs worry Washington and North Korea‘s neighbors because plants making highly enriched uranium are much easier to hide than plutonium facilities. The latter are larger and generate more heat than uranium enrichment plants, making them simpler for outsiders to monitor and for satellites to detect.

Uranium can be enriched for use in bombs by using centrifuges that can be operated almost anywhere: in small factories or even in tunnels and caves. They can be spread around the country out of sight of nuclear inspectors. And it would take a relatively small amount of highly enriched uranium to build a simple bomb similar to the one dropped on Hiroshima at the end of World War II.

“A uranium test would be a big deal because a centrifuge plant is much easier to conceal than a plutonium reactor, which is practically impossible to hide,” said Daniel Pinkston, a Seoul-based expert on North Korea with the International Crisis Group think tank.

It is also simpler in some ways to build a nuclear bomb with highly enriched uranium than one with plutonium.

“While a plutonium bomb requires the assembly of a complicated weapons system to deal with pre-detonation issues, a HEU bomb is relatively easy to construct,” Harvard physicist Hui Zhang wrote in an analysis for the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. “Moreover, unlike plutonium, HEU poses no significant health hazards during the construction phase because of its low level of radiation.”

Scientist and nuclear expert Siegfried Hecker said plutonium is considered better for building small warheads, which North Korea is believed to be attempting to develop so it can threaten the U.S. with long-range nuclear-tipped missiles.

“Switching to HEU at this point actually increases the technical challenge” for North Korean scientists to build miniaturized nuclear warheads, James Acton, a physicist at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said in an email.

It’s not clear whether North Korea has made bomb-grade uranium. But Pyongyang confirmed long-held worries that it was enriching uranium in late 2010, when it showed foreign experts a facility at its well-known Yongbyon nuclear reactor site. Analysts strongly suspect Pyongyang has other uranium enrichment facilities, and it is feared that hidden plants could be producing large amounts of weapons-grade uranium.

EASY TO DIG UP:

North Korea says the program is for peaceful, energy-generating purposes. But while uranium enriched to low levels is used in power reactors, centrifuges can also be made to enrich uranium to the high levels needed for bombs.

North Korea apparently decided a few years ago to focus on highly enriched uranium rather than plutonium, Acton said. That’s probably because its leaders realized that “with a given amount of investment, it could produce more bombs-worth of HEU than plutonium,” he said.

North Korea has large deposits of uranium ore, and is far less able to acquire plutonium.

Hecker estimated that Pyongyang has only 24 to 42 kilograms of plutonium — enough for perhaps four to eight rudimentary bombs similar to the plutonium weapon used on Nagasaki in World War II. It does not appear to making more; its plutonium reactor north of Pyongyang was shut down during disarmament negotiations.

“It’s only logical that it would now test an HEU device, since that would be most helpful for designing its future arsenal,” Acton said, though he didn’t exclude the possibility of a plutonium test.

Acton, Hecker and other analysts have raised the possibility that North Korea may try to test both plutonium and uranium devices simultaneously.

AN OPEN SECRET:

Even as Pyongyang negotiated with the world to scrap its plutonium efforts in the latest round of nuclear disarmament talks, which began in 2003 and were last held in late 2008, its scientists were apparently working on a secret uranium program.

Outsiders have long raised suspicions of such a program.

James Kelly, a U.S. envoy during the George W. Bush administration, confronted North Korean officials with claims about uranium enrichment during a 2002 visit to Pyongyang, sparking a nuclear crisis that led to the creation of the now-stalled six-nation disarmament talks.

Former Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf has said North Korea worked with A.Q. Khan, creator of Pakistan‘s atomic bomb, to obtain the centrifuges needed for uranium enrichment before Khan’s operation was disrupted in 2003. Musharraf wrote in his 2006 memoir that Khan transferred nearly two dozen centrifuges to North Korea.

In 2007, then-U.S. nuclear envoy Christopher Hill said Washington knew Pyongyang had bought equipment only used for uranium enrichment.

North Korea finally revealed at least some of its uranium enrichment equipment in November 2010 to visiting Americans. They saw what appeared to be a sophisticated, modern uranium enrichment facility with 2,000 centrifuges.

Pyongyang’s long pursuit of uranium “is the clearest indication that North Korea intends to retain and enhance its nuclear weapons capabilities and has no intention to give up these capabilities,” according to Jonathan Pollack, a North Korea analyst at the Brookings Institution think tank in Washington. “That is the fundamental fact that all outside powers must address.”

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North Korean leader vows to move ahead with nuclear test

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North Korean leader Kim Jong Un convened top security and foreign affairs officials and ordered them to take “substantial and high-profile important state measures,” state media said Sunday, indicating that he plans to push forward with a threat to explode a nuclear device in defiance of the United Nations.

The meeting of top officials led by Kim makes clear that he backs Pyongyang’s defiant stance in protest of U.N. Security Council punishment for a December rocket launch. The dispatch in the official Korean Central News Agency did not say when the meeting took place.

Last week, the Security Council condemned North Korea‘s Dec. 12 launch of a long-range rocket as a violation of a ban against nuclear and missile activity. The council, including North Korea ally China, punished Pyongyang with more sanctions and ordered the regime to refrain from a nuclear test — or face “significant action.”

North Korea responded by rejecting the resolution and maintaining its right to launch a satellite into orbit as part of a peaceful civilian space program.

It also warned that it would keep developing rockets and testing nuclear devices to counter what it sees as U.S. hostility. A rare statement was issued Thursday by the powerful National Defense Commission, the top governing body led by Kim.

Kim’s order for strong action and the recent series of strong statements indicate he intends to conduct a nuclear test in the near future to show “he is a young yet powerful leader both domestically and internationally,” said Chin Hee-gwan, a North Korea expert at South Korea‘s Inje University.

North Korea cites a U.S. military threat in the region as a key reason behind its drive to build nuclear weapons. The two countries fought on opposite sides of the Korean War, which ended after three years in 1953 with an armistice, not a peace treaty. The U.S.-led U.N. Command mans the Demilitarized Zone dividing the two Koreas, and Washington stations more than 28,000 troops in South Korea to protect its ally.

North Korea is estimated to have enough weaponized plutonium for four to eight bombs, according to American nuclear scientist Siegfried Hecker, who visited the country’s nuclear complex northwest of Pyongyang in November 2010.

However, it is not known whether North Korean scientists have found a way to build nuclear warheads small enough to mount on a long-range missile.

Experts say regular tests are needed to perfect the technique, and another atomic test could take the country closer to its goal of building a warhead that can be mounted on a missile designed to strike the United States. North Korea has carried out two nuclear tests, in 2006 and 2009.

South Korean defense officials say North Korea is technically ready to conduct a nuclear test in a matter of days.

Satellite photos taken Wednesday show that over the past month, roads have been kept clear of snow and that North Koreans may have been sealing the tunnel into a mountainside where a nuclear device would be detonated.

Analysis of the images of the Punggye-ri site was provided Friday to The Associated Press by 38 North, the website of the U.S.-Korea Institute at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies.

Kim could order a nuclear test ahead of the Feb. 16th birthday of his late father and former leader Kim Jong Il to “create a festive mood,” Chin predicted. Kim Jong Il died at age 69 in December 2011.

The U.S., South Korea and other countries have warned North Korea not to go ahead with a nuclear test, saying that would only deepen the country’s international isolation.

After meeting with Chinese officials Friday, U.S. envoy for North Korea Glyn Davies said a nuclear test would set back efforts to restart regional talks on the North’s nuclear disarmament.

North Korea has accused the U.S. and South Korea of leading the push for the U.N. Security Council resolution.

Sunday’s KCNA dispatch said the U.N. punishment indicates U.S. hostility toward North Korea has reached its highest point. North Korea also warned South Korea on Friday of “strong physical countermeasures” if Seoul takes part in the U.N. sanctions.

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North Korean leader vows strong action

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North Korean leader Kim Jong Un convened top security and foreign affairs officials and ordered them to take “substantial and high-profile important state measures,” state media said Sunday, indicating that he plans to push forward with a threat to explode a nuclear device in defiance of the United Nations.

The meeting of top officials led by Kim makes clear that he backs Pyongyang’s defiant stance in protest of U.N. Security Council punishment for a December rocket launch. The dispatch in the official Korean Central News Agency did not say when the meeting took place.

Last week, the Security Council condemned North Korea‘s Dec. 12 launch of a long-range rocket as a violation of a ban against nuclear and missile activity. The council, including North Korea ally China, punished Pyongyang with more sanctions and ordered the regime to refrain from a nuclear test — or face “significant action.”

North Korea responded by rejecting the resolution and maintaining its right to launch a satellite into orbit as part of a peaceful civilian space program.

It also warned that it would keep developing rockets and testing nuclear devices to counter what it sees as U.S. hostility. A rare statement was issued Thursday by the powerful National Defense Commission, the top governing body led by Kim.

North Korea cites a U.S. military threat in the region as a key reason behind its drive to build nuclear weapons. The two countries fought on opposite sides of the Korean War, which ended after three years in 1953 with an armistice, not a peace treaty. The U.S.-led U.N. Command mans the Demilitarized Zone dividing the two Koreas, and Washington stations more than 28,000 troops in South Korea to protect its ally.

North Korea is estimated to have enough weaponized plutonium for four to eight bombs, according to American nuclear scientist Siegfried Hecker, who visited the country’s nuclear complex northwest of Pyongyang in November 2010.

However, it is not known whether North Korean scientists have found a way to build nuclear warheads small enough to mount on a long-range missile.

Experts say regular tests are needed to perfect the technique, and another atomic test could take the country closer to its goal of building a warhead that can be mounted on a missile designed to strike the United States. North Korea has carried out two nuclear tests, in 2006 and 2009.

South Korean defense officials say North Korea is technically ready to conduct a nuclear test in a matter of days.

Satellite photos taken Wednesday show that over the past month, roads have been kept clear of snow and that North Koreans may have been sealing the tunnel into a mountainside where a nuclear device would be detonated.

Analysis of the images of the Punggye-ri site was provided Friday to The Associated Press by 38 North, the website of the U.S.-Korea Institute at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies.

The U.S., South Korea and other countries have warned North Korea not to go ahead with a nuclear test, saying that would only deepen the country’s international isolation.

After meeting with Chinese officials Friday, U.S. envoy for North Korea Glyn Davies said a nuclear test would set back efforts to restart regional talks on the North’s nuclear disarmament.

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North Korea nuclear threats likely overblown, experts say

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According to its official statements, North Korea is ready to go to the brink. But how serious are Pyongyang’s threats?

This week, new U.N. sanctions punishing the North’s successful December rocket launch have elicited a furious response from Pyongyang: strong hints that a third nuclear test is coming, along with bigger and better long-range missiles; “all-out action” against its “sworn enemy,” the United States; and on Friday, a threat of “strong physical countermeasures” against South Korea if Seoul participates in the sanctions.

“Sanctions mean war,” said a statement carried by North Korea‘s official Korean Central News Agency.

In the face of international condemnation, North Korea can usually be counted on for such flights of rhetorical pique. In recent years it threatened to turn South Korea into a “sea of fire,” and to wage a “sacred war” against its enemies.

If the past is any indication, its threats of war are overblown. But the chances it will conduct another nuclear test are high. And it is gaining ground in its missile program, experts say, though still a long way from seriously threatening the U.S. mainland.

“It’s not the first time they’ve made a similar threat of war,” said Ryoo Kihl-jae, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies in Seoul. “What’s more serious than the probability of an attack on South Korea is that of a nuclear test. I see very slim chances of North Korea following through with its threat of war.”

Although North Korea‘s leadership is undeniably concerned that it might be attacked or bullied by outside powers, the tough talk is mainly an attempt to bolster its bargaining position in diplomatic negotiations.

The impoverished North is in need of international aid and is eager to sign a treaty bringing a formal end to the Korean War, which ended nearly 60 years ago in a truce. It uses its weapons program as a wedge in the ever-repeating diplomatic dance with the U.S.-led international community, and there is no reason to believe this time is different.

“I see this as their way of testing the water,” said Narushige Michishita, a North Korea expert at Tokyo’s Graduate Institute of Policy Studies. “North Korea will probably never be able to defeat the United States in a war. But they are getting stronger.”

In 2006 and 2009, North Korea carried out underground nuclear tests just after receiving U.N. sanctions for launching long-range rockets. The latest barrage of rhetoric comes after the U.N. Security Council voted unanimously on Tuesday to condemn the successful Dec. 12 rocket launch and further expand sanctions against Kim Jong Un‘s regime. Pyongyang replied with its threat of more launches and possibly another nuclear test.

“Settling accounts with the U.S. needs to be done with force, not with words,” said Thursday’s statement from the National Defense Commission, which promised “a new phase of the anti-U.S. struggle that has lasted century after century.”

North Korea has long insisted that its rocket launches were peaceful attempts to put a satellite in orbit, while the U.S. and United Nations consider them illegal tests of missile technology. This week, however, Pyongyang, made it clear that one goal of its rocket program is to attack the United States.

But its ability to do so is limited, say experts who believe North Korea still has technological kinks to work out in its nuclear devices. It is thought to be unable to make a nuclear weapon small enough to be mounted on a missile, so it needs to test that technology as well.

Another big issue is money.

In his first speech to his people, the young leader, Kim, who is still believed to be in his 20s, said North Korea will continue its “military first” policy. But for a nation that chronically struggles to feed its own people, resources are limited. And because of trade restrictions, acquiring parts for its weapons from abroad is increasingly difficult.

Despite December‘s successful launch, North Korea‘s ability to get missiles off the launch pad is less than reliable. In April, a similar rocket splintered into pieces over the Yellow Sea. Days later, North Korea showed off what appeared to be an intercontinental ballistic missile, but many experts who reviewed footage of the rockets said they were clearly fakes.

The North does, however, appear to be making some progress.

Japan’s Defense Ministry, in an assessment of the December launch presented to the prime minister on Friday, said the North’s best designs probably give its missiles a range of more than 10,000 kilometers (6,200 miles), according to Japan’s Kyodo news service. That would be enough to reach the West Coast of the United States. A South Korean defense official said Friday that Seoul agrees with that assessment.

The Japanese report warned that Pyongyang’s missile technology has “entered a new stage” that is of serious concern to the international community. Japan is particularly wary of North Korea‘s capabilities because all of its islands are well within striking distance. Japan also hosts about 50,000 U.S. troops, whose bases would be a tempting target if Pyongyang were to try to make good on its threats.

“There has been a tendency to underestimate what North Korea can do in the space and missile field, and possibly with technology in general,” U.S. nuclear expert Jeffrey Lewis wrote recently on his Arms Control Wonk blog. He noted that debris recovered from the wreckage of the December rocket’s first stage indicates that most of it was made in North Korea.

North Korea claims the right to build nuclear weapons as a defense against the United States, which stations more than 28,000 troops in South Korea.

It is believed to have enough weapons-grade plutonium for about four to eight bombs, according to nuclear scientist Siegfried Hecker, who visited North Korea‘s nuclear complex in 2010. And in 2009, Pyongyang also declared that it would begin enriching uranium, giving it a second way to make atomic weapons.

U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta said Thursday that he has seen no outward sign that North Korea will follow through soon on its plan to conduct a test, but added that doesn’t mean preparations aren’t under way.

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NKorea warns of nuke test, more rocket launches

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North Korea‘s top governing body warned Thursday that the regime will conduct its third nuclear test in defiance of U.N. punishment, and made clear that its long-range rockets are designed to carry not only satellites but also warheads aimed at striking the United States.

The National Defense Commission, headed by the country’s young leader, Kim Jong Un, rejected Tuesday’s U.N. Security Council resolution condemning North Korea‘s long-range rocket launch in December as a banned missile activity and expanding sanctions against the regime. The commission reaffirmed in its declaration that the launch was a peaceful bid to send a satellite into space, but also said the country’s rocket launches have a military purpose: to strike and attack the United States.

The commission pledged to keep launching satellites and rockets and to conduct a nuclear test as part of a “new phase” of combat with the United States, which it blames for leading the U.N. bid to punish Pyongyang. It said a nuclear test was part of “upcoming” action but did not say exactly when or where it would take place.

“We do not hide that a variety of satellites and long-range rockets which will be launched by the DPRK one after another and a nuclear test of higher level which will be carried out by it in the upcoming all-out action, a new phase of the anti-U.S. struggle that has lasted century after century, will target against the U.S., the sworn enemy of the Korean people,” the commission said, referring to North Korea by its official name, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea.

“Settling accounts with the U.S. needs to be done with force, not with words, as it regards jungle law as the rule of its survival,” the commission said.

It was a rare declaration by the powerful military commission once led by late leader Kim Jong Il and now commanded by his son, Kim Jong Un. The statement made clear Kim’s commitment to continue developing the country’s nuclear and missile programs in defiance of the Security Council, even at risk of further international isolation.

North Korea‘s allusion to a “higher level” nuclear test most likely refers to a device made from highly enriched uranium, which is easier to miniaturize than the plutonium bombs it tested in 2006 and 2009, said Cheong Seong-chang, an analyst at the private Sejong Institute in South Korea. Experts say the North Koreans must conduct further tests of its atomic devices and master the technique for making them smaller before they can be mounted as nuclear warheads onto long-range missiles.

The U.S. State Department had no immediate response to Thursday’s statement. On Wednesday, after Pyongyang’s Foreign Ministry issued its own angry response to the Security Council decision and said the North would bolster its “nuclear deterrence,” U.S. envoy to North Korea Glyn Davies urged restraint.

“It is important that they heed the voice of the international community,” Davies said in South Korea. He was meeting with South Korean officials on a trip that also will take him to China and Japan to discuss how to move forward on North Korea relations.

Davies said that if North Korea begins “to take concrete steps to indicate their interest in returning to diplomacy, they may find in their negotiating partners willing partners in that process.”

North Korea claims the right to build nuclear weapons as a defense against the United States, its Korean War foe.

The bitter three-year war ended in a truce, not a peace treaty, in 1953, and left the Korean Peninsula divided by the world’s most heavily fortified demilitarized zone. The U.S. leads the U.N. Command that governs the truce and stations more than 28,000 troops in ally South Korea, a presence that North Korea cites as a key reason for its drive to build nuclear weapons.

North Korea is estimated to have stored up enough weaponized plutonium for four to eight bombs, according to scientist Siegfried Hecker, who visited the North’s Nyongbyon nuclear complex in 2010.

In 2009, Pyongyang also declared that it would begin enriching uranium, which would give North Korea a second way to make atomic weapons.

North Korea carried out underground nuclear tests in 2006 and 2009, both times just weeks after being punished with U.N. sanctions for launching long-range rockets it claimed were peaceful bids to send satellites into space.

In October, an unidentified spokesman at the National Defense Commission warned in statement carried by state media that the U.S. mainland was within range of its missiles. And at a military parade last April, North Korea showed off what appeared to be an intercontinental ballistic missile.

Satellite photos taken last month at North Korea‘s underground nuclear test site in Punggye-ri in the far northeast showed continued activity that suggested a state of readiness even in winter, according to analysis by 38 North, a North Korea website affiliated with the Johns Hopkins School for Advanced International Studies.

Another nuclear test would bring North Korea a step closer to being ability to launch a long-range missile tipped with a nuclear warhead, said Daniel Pinkston, an analyst with the International Crisis Group.

“Their behavior indicates they want to acquire those capabilities,” he said. “The ultimate goal is to have a robust nuclear deterrent.”

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Associated Press writers Jean H. Lee and Sam Kim contributed to this report. Follow AP’s Korea bureau chief at www.twitter.com/newsjean.

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Launch, sanctions, nukes: NKorea may repeat cycle

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North Korea‘s nuclear agitations follow a well-worn route. It starts with a long-range rocket launch. The United Nations punishes the act with sanctions. And Pyongyang responds by conducting a nuclear test.

It happened in 2006, and again in 2009. With the U.N. leveling new sanctions, the world is about to find out whether North Korea‘s young new leader will detonate an atomic bomb, or step away from the path his father laid.

The U.N. Security Council voted unanimously Tuesday to adopt a resolution, the third of its kind since 2006, condemning a North Korean rocket launch as a violation of banned missile activity. North Korea‘s Foreign Ministry swiftly rejected the move early Wednesday, maintaining that the launch was a peaceful bid to explore space and accusing the U.S. of “hostile” intent in leading the push for punishment.

In the face of what it considers to be a U.S. threat, North Korea “will take steps for physical counteraction to bolster the military capabilities for self-defense, including the nuclear deterrence, both qualitatively and quantitatively,” the ministry warned in a statement.

Analysts say the wording hints at a nuclear test. In 2006 and 2009, North Korea responded to similar Security Council punishment by detonating devices underground, which experts say is a key step in the process of developing an atomic bomb small enough to mount on a long-range missile.

“Things are lining up to make a nuclear test likely,” said Daniel Pinkston, a Seoul-based analyst with the International Crisis Group. “There’s a long-term pattern. The logic is to demonstrate your strength.”

But this time, North Korea has a new leader, Kim Jong Un, who took power in December 2011 following the death of his father, Kim Jong Il. How he will handle the standoff with the international community remains unclear.

While sending a satellite into space was his father’s dying wish, the young Kim has focused less on defense, saying in a recent speech that “the building of an economic giant” is his country’s most pressing task. He’s also hinted at a desire to make a shift in foreign policy by saying publicly that he is open to reaching out to former foes.

At the same time, Kim has already thrown away one agreement with the United States by going ahead with a rocket launch in April, and further antagonized the international community with the launch that put North Korea‘s first satellite into space last month.

It would be burdensome to order a nuclear test that would risk additional sanctions at a time when Kim wants to revive the economy, said Koh Yu-hwan, professor of North Korean Studies at Seoul’s Dongguk University. He said that with President Barack Obama starting a second term and a new South Korean government taking office next month, Kim will be watching to see how their foreign policies toward North Korea take shape before making any big moves.

A nuclear test could also strain Pyongyang’s relationship with Beijing. China, North Korea‘s main ally and traditional protector, broke form in agreeing to the binding Security Council resolution and an expansion of sanctions.

The Security Council resolution demands that North Korea abandon its nuclear weapons program in a “complete, verifiable and irreversible manner,” and orders the regime to cease rocket launches. The binding resolution orders the freeze of more North Korean assets, including the space agency, and imposes a travel ban on four more officials.

China opposed tougher sanctions, and analysts said it is continuing to protect its ally.

“China is striking a balance here. It wants to punish North Korea for the latest launch and tell it not to undertake a new ballistic missile launch,” said Shen Dingli, a regional security expert and director of the Center for American Studies at Shanghai’s Fudan University. “But it doesn’t want to put unbearable pressure on Pyongyang.”

There was no indication Wednesday of an imminent nuclear test. However, satellite photos taken last month at North Korea‘s underground nuclear test site in Punggye-ri in the far northeast showed continued activity that suggested a state of readiness even in winter, according to analysis by 38 North, a North Korea website affiliated with the Johns Hopkins School for Advanced International Studies.

Last month’s rocket launch has been celebrated as a success in North Korea, and the scientists involved have been treated like heroes. Kim Jong Un cited the launch in his New Year’s Day speech laying out North Korea‘s main policies and goals for the upcoming year, and banners hailing the launch are posted on buildings across the capital.

Washington and others consider the rocket launches covert tests of ballistic missile technology since satellite launches and long-range missile launches have similar firing mechanisms. At a military parade last April, North Korea showed off what appeared to be an intercontinental ballistic missile.

Though it insists its efforts to launch a satellite are peaceful, North Korea also claims the right to build nuclear weapons as a defense against the United States, which stations more than 28,000 troops in South Korea. The adversaries fought in the three-year Korean War, which ended in a truce in 1953 and left the Korean Peninsula divided by the world’s most heavily fortified demilitarized zone.

North Korea has enough weaponized plutonium for about four to eight bombs, according to nuclear scientist Siegfried Hecker, who visited North Korea‘s nuclear complex in 2010. In 2009, Pyongyang also declared that it would begin enriching uranium, which would give North Korea a second way to make atomic weapons.

For years, China, Russia, Japan, South Korea and the U.S. negotiated with North Korea to offer aid in return for disarmament. North Korea walked away from those talks after U.N. sanctions in 2009.

Later, Pyongyang indicated its readiness to resume discussing disarmament. In February 2012, it negotiated a deal with Washington to place a moratorium on nuclear and missile tests in exchange for food aid.

That deal fell apart when North Korea unsuccessfully launched a long-range rocket in April that it insisted did not constitute a missile test and thus was not a banned activity.

In July, North Korea‘s Foreign Ministry issued a memorandum declaring that it felt forced to “completely re-examine the nuclear issue due to the continued U.S. hostile policy” toward Pyongyang. On Wednesday, the ministry said talks about disarmament are off the table.

It may be a non-nuclear issue that returns North Korea and the U.S. to negotiations.

A U.S. citizen is in North Korean custody after being arrested in the northeastern city of Rason in November, according to state media. Kenneth Bae is accused of committing “hostile” acts against the regime.

Similarly, in 2009, two American journalists were sentenced to 12 years of hard labor for committing “crimes against the state.” That August, three months after the nuclear test, former President Bill Clinton flew to Pyongyang to negotiate their release, a visit that provided an opening for dialogue between the foes.

Kim Jong Un, like his father, appears to be resorting to nuclear threats to deal with friction from the outside world, Pinkston said.

“It’s more of the same — not that much change in the overall grand strategy and orientation,” he said.

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AP writers Peter James Spielmann at the United Nations, Hyung-jin Kim and Sam Kim in Seoul, and Christopher Bodeen in Beijing contributed to this report.

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Follow AP’s Korea bureau chief at www.twitter.com/newsjean.

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