Don’t worry, one popular argument goes, we’ve seen this before. Just ignore Pyongyang’s unlikely threats of nuclear holocaust as you would, say, a child throwing a tantrum.
Others, equally well credentialed, say the prospect of another Korean War has never been higher, with a massive, proud North Korean army incensed by propaganda specialists pumping up an already supercharged atmosphere with increasingly violent threats.
Who’s right? That depends on how you read the country’s young leader, Kim Jong Un. In his 16 months on the job, Kim’s government has raised fears with unusually aggressive threats against Seoul and Washington, and it’s not clear whether he will pull back, a feat perfected by his late father, considered a master at brinkmanship.
The mystery surrounding Kim Jong Un‘s intentions has some outsiders predicting nightmare scenarios.
“What makes this different from past ‘normal crises’ is our lack of insight into … Kim’s mind,” David Shlapak, a U.S.-Asia security analyst at RAND Corp., said last week in a transcript of comments released by the think tank.
The threats have continued, even amid U.S. and South Korean offers of dialogue. On Tuesday, the North’s military Supreme Command warned that unspecified retaliatory actions would happen at any time.
Figure out Kim, analysts say, and you may determine what’s happening in North Korea.
If he follows the playbook of his father, Kim Jong Il, he will tighten the screws just enough, in an attempt to push his adversaries to negotiations meant to win aid. Grandfather Kim Il Sung, on the other hand, gambled everything early in his leadership on a surprise attack on South Korea that resulted in three years of carnage that had U.S. officials dropping hints about the use nuclear weapons to force a resolution.
Some see the North’s sustained outburst as part of a long-established pattern meant to solidify loyalty at home, while also pushing Seoul and Washington to adopt more Pyongyang-friendly policies. Since the Korean War ended in 1953, they say, the rivals have experienced many cycles of hostility, often punctuated by bloodshed, without things spiraling out of control.
“There are no good reasons to think that Kim Jong Un, North Korea‘s young dictator, would want to commit suicide,” Andrei Lankov, a professor at Kookmin University in Seoul, wrote last week in a New York Times op-ed
From: http://feeds.foxnews.com/~r/foxnews/world/~3/Xrtxfvbh19E/