Tag Archives: Nassim Taleb

Twitter: The Carnival Barker of Investing

By Morgan Housel, The Motley Fool

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“The calamity of the information age is that the toxicity of data increases much faster than its benefits.”Nassim Taleb.

When asked what I read, I always plug Twitter. It is one of the most effective communication devices ever invented, I usually say, with no exaggeration.

Twitter has become so important to finance that it is taking over the role of the Wall Street analyst. As news broke of the Cyprus bailout last month, Twitter was a mile ahead of Wall Street. Joe Weisenthal of Business Insider wrote:

Twitter is increasingly equaling or surpassing the value of traditional sell-side research from Wall Street analysts … Because the [Cyprus] news was so surprising, and because there’s so little time between when the bailout was announced early Saturday morning, and when trading begins Sunday evening, there’s been an aggressive thirst for information and analysis on what it all means. But the sell-side has been fairly slow, and the Twittersphere has come to the rescue.

He is right. When big financial news is breaking, all the money in the world can’t buy the information streaming from Twitter’s free iPhone app. It is indispensable. 

But there is another side of Twitter, as Washington Post columnist Ezra Klein recently wrote:

Toward the end of the election, I pretty much stopped reading Twitter altogether. It improved my life, and the quality of my work. There was so much partisan sniping and gaffe-driven garbage that reading almost anything but Twitter was a huge improvement in the quality of the information I consumed.

Most forms of information are slow-moving, Klein writes. “If I neglect my RSS feed today, the posts will still be there tomorrow,” he says. “The same is true for the books I’m reading, the magazines piled on my nightstand, the tabs open in my browser.” Ditto for conventional journalism. If I check WSJ.com at 4 A.M. or 9 A.M. or noon, I will find the same stories. There is no rush.

But on Twitter, not checking your feed for an hour can mean missing something important. Since there’s no easy way to see what everyone you follow has Tweeted in the last day — to say nothing of the last week — the best way to stay on top of what’s important is to become a Twitter maniac, glued to the screen all day. It’s as if you didn’t know when your favorite TV show will air, and there’s way to record it when it does. Not wanting to miss it, you sit in front of the TV all day, waiting for it come.

But that means having to sit through a lot of soap operas and realty TV shows. Which is exactly how Twitter can feel sometimes. And I feel it’s getting worse.

In decade’s past, top investors wrote their clients once a quarter, maybe even once a year. Top newspaper columnists wrote once or twice a week.

Twitter has sent those expectations through …read more

Source: FULL ARTICLE at DailyFinance

Even In a Crisis, Gold Is Fragile

By Alex Dumortier, CFA, The Motley Fool

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With Cyprus dominating the financial markets news this week, the “risk on/risk off” switching process has governed stock market action this week. On the back of Thursday’s losses, stocks mirrored Wednesday’s gains, with the S&P 500

gaining 0.7%, while the narrower, price-weighted Dow Jones Industrial Average

rose 0.6%. On the week, the S&P 500 lost 0.2% — only its second weekly loss this year.

Reflecting the day’s gains, the VIX Index , Wall Street‘s fear gauge, fell 3% today, to close at 13.57. (The VIX is calculated from S&P 500 option prices and reflects investor expectations for stock market volatility over the coming 30 days.)

Gold: not anti-fragile
Philosopher-trader Nassim Taleb, the author of The Black Swan and, most recently, Antifragile, has been a harsh critic of the Federal Reserve, both under Ben Bernanke and his predecessor, Alan Greenspan. According to the argument he develops in Antifragile, the national economy is like a living organism in that it requires an environment that changes — sometimes in an adverse or hostile manner — in order to become stronger. Or, as he puts it, “Anything organic requires ‘variability stressors.'”

In this model, which I think is a powerful example of consilience, any efforts to artificially suppress that variability — such as quantitative easing — are doomed to weaken the organism and sow the seeds of larger, more damaging crises.

Consistent with this reasoning, you might think Mr. Taleb is very bullish on gold — a store of immutable value, according to its supporters. Not so. As reported by Barron’s Michael Santoli, at an investment conference in New York yesterday, Taleb told investors: “It’s too neat a narrative, gold. Central banks own gold,” before adding, “something that doubles [in value] in no time can’t be a real store of value.”

I’m not sure that the fact that central banks own gold is, in itself, relevant to the investment case — after all, Ben Bernanke himself said this is a matter of long-term tradition, rather than economics.  However, I think Taleb is dead on with his two other remarks, particularly the third. Something that doubles in value is highly unlikely to be a real store of value. Why? Because if it behaves that way, it’s probably equally likely to halve in value in the same amount of time (or faster). By definition, a store value cannot exhibit that sort of volatility. Shareholders of the SPDR Gold Shares and the iShares Silver Trust may want to ponder Mr. Taleb’s words.

If you’re sick of “risk on/ risk off,” and you’re ready to invest based on competitive advantage and long-term …read more
Source: FULL ARTICLE at DailyFinance

Seven Business Strategies for Capturing the Next Golden Swan

By Bill Conerly, Contributor

A black swan is an unpredictable event, according to Nassim Taleb’s bestselling book, The Black Swan. The black swan can be positive or negative. I like to call the unexpected good events Golden Swans. Is your company ready to capitalize on the next Golden Swan? …read more
Source: FULL ARTICLE at Forbes Latest