Whether you’re an investor or a consumer, quite a bit has been going right for Netflix  in 2013. The company’s stock is up an impressive 87% so far this year, and its first major original programming, House of Cards, was met with fantastic reviews and quickly became Netflix’s most-watched programming upon its Feb. 1 premiere. 

Netflix’s big bet in the coming year is on original programming, and it hit the ball out of the park with House of Cards, yet big-budget original programming is a risky field. The gold standard of premium original programming, HBO, has had its share of successes, such as The Sopranos and Game of Thrones. Both of those shows have big ratings and nearly universal critical acclaim. However, HBO‘s successes come with misses as well. The network thought so highly of John From Cincinnati that it aired the show’s premiere after the series finale of The Sopranos. 

The big bet on that program was a spectacular failure; John From Cincinnati was cancelled the day after its first-season finale. Today, HBO thinks so lowly of the show that it’s one of the few original shows not available on HBO Go. 

The point being? Ambitious, big-budget original programming can be a hit-and-miss affair, especially when tackling tricky subjects that network television would never go for. Even the best in the business, HBO, has its share of absolute duds. With Netflix going 1-for-1 with ambitious original programs, will it succumb to the law of averages and release a dud?

If the first review of its newest series, Hemlock Grove, is any indication, while Netflix succeeded spectacularly with House of Cards, it still has some growing pains in becoming an original programming powerhouse. 

A dubious idea from the start
Hemlock Grove is the second of three major original programming gambles from Netflix in the first half of 2013. Like House of Cards, it features some high-paid talent. While House of Cards had Kevin Spacey as the main actor and David Fincher as director (he was also behind such films as Seven, Fight Club, and The Social Network), Hemlock Grove has Eli Roth attached to the director role and well-known actors such as Famke Janssen, who was in X-Men and GoldenEye. 

Like House of Cards, which cost a reported $100 million for two seasons, Netflix appears to be sparing no expense on Hemlock Grove. The first season was reportedly budgeted at $4 million per episode, pushing it above budgets for widely viewed broadcast programming. 

The problem with Hemlock Grove is that it’s coming from a niche background, yet angling for more conventional fare at the same time. Director Eli Roth’s background is focused around gore-fest horror fare like Hostel. That’s a genre with very limited commercial appeal compared with something like House of Cards’ genre of political thrillers, a known quantity that’s been a staple of broadcast programming across the past decade and appeals to a wide audience. The horror genre has seen some recent success with FX’s American Horror Story, but the genre remains a big risk with a limited yet very dedicated audience. However, Hemlock