Tag Archives: Conference Board

Key Adjustable Mortgage Rate Sees Big Spike

By Rich Smith, The Motley Fool

Filed under:

Freddie Mac released its weekly update on national mortgage rates this morning, showing average fixed mortgage rates moving slightly higher for the week but still remaining near historic lows..

Thirty-year fixed rate mortgages (FRM) bounced back after last week’s big drop, rising three basis points to end at 3.57%. Shorter-term 15-year FRMs rose similarly, up four basis points to 2.76%.

But the more interesting movements took place among adjustable-rate mortgages. 5/1 ARMs actually outgrew their longer-dated counterparts, spiking seven basis points to hit 2.68%, their highest level since January. One-year ARMs, in contrast, fell one basis point, to 2.62%.

Commenting on the numbers, Freddie Mac Vice President and Chief Economist Frank Nothaft said that  mortgage rates remain “low and relatively steady,” and observed that this is “invigorating the housing market. For instance, existing home sales over January and February experienced the strongest two-month pace since November 2009, while new home sales were the strongest since August and September 2008.”

Nothaft further cited a Conference Board report that “the number of consumers expecting to purchase a home over the next six months rose to 5.6 percent in March, the second highest share since data was first collected in February 1964.”

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The article Key Adjustable Mortgage Rate Sees Big Spike originally appeared on Fool.com.

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Source: FULL ARTICLE at DailyFinance

Gap Hit By Weak Consumer Confidence

By Rich Smith, The Motley Fool

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Shares of Gap dropped as much as 3.1% in early Tuesday trading and remain down 2.6% with less than an hour left in the session. They weren’t alone.

Sharing Gap‘s misery are retailers including Sears Holdings and American Eagle Outfitters , down 1.3% and 1.5%, respectively, while other clothiers suffer to a more limited extent.

What’s behind the sell-off? In two words: consumer confidence. Today’s Conference Board report on the ephemeral feel-good metric for American shoppers showed a drop from the “68” level of February to 59.7 in March. To put that in context, AP says that any number below “90” means the economy remains unhealthy.

Shocker.

Recent reports of strong home sales and declining unemployment levels notwithstanding, I doubt many of us were under the impression that America’s economy was going great guns. And that makes today’s reaction — overreaction, I should say — and overpunishment of Gap shares all the more remarkable.

If you’re an investor and feel you need to respond to Conference Board estimates of how “confident” Americans are feeling — buying when confidence is up and selling when it’s down — then you need to be aware of what you’re in for. These confidence reports come out every month, and I can tell you one thing with 99% certainty: Whatever number the Conference Board reports in April will not be the 59.7 number we see today in March.

It’ll be higher, or it’ll be lower, and if you insist on hopping every time the Conference Board says “toad!”, then you can expect to pay trading commissions each and every month of the year. You’ll get dinged by the IRS for short-term gains (if you’re lucky), as well. And likely as not, you’ll have to reverse your decision just 30 days later.

A bit of Foolish advice
So what should you do instead? Invest for the long term. Don’t buy or sell Gap based on an eternally fluctuating confidence number. Instead, buy or sell Gap based on whether you think the stock is worth its current 15 times earnings at its projected 9.4% growth rate.

Personally, I don’t think it is. But whether you agree or disagree, at least you’ll be trading on hard-and-fast numbers that won’t change 12 times a year — only four.

The article Gap Hit By Weak Consumer Confidence originally appeared on Fool.com.

Fool contributor
 

Rich Smith

 
has no positions in the stocks mentioned above.
 
You can find him on CAPS, publicly pontificating under the handle

TMFDitty

, where he’s currently ranked No. 326 out of more than 180,000 members.
The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all …read more
Source: FULL ARTICLE at DailyFinance

Consumer Confidence Down 12.2% for March

By Justin Loiseau, The Motley Fool

Filed under:

Consumer confidence continues its roller-coaster ride, according to a Conference Board report issued today.

The Board’s Consumer Confidence Index dropped 12.2% in March after posting a 19% gain in February and a 12% loss in January. In absolute terms, the index’s March number clocked in at 59.7, 8.3 points less than February and well below the index’s 1985 100-point benchmark.

“This month’s retreat was driven primarily by a sharp decline in expectations, although consumers were also more pessimistic in their assessment of current conditions,” said Director of Economic Indicators Lynn Franco in a statement today. “The loss of confidence, particularly expectations, mirrors the losses experienced this past December and January. The recent sequester has created uncertainty regarding the economic outlook and as a result, consumers are less confident.”

Drawn from a random sample, consumers’ opinions of current conditions and the near future remain pessimistic. Consumers who believe business conditions to be “good” fell 1.6 percentage points to 16%, while those describing business as “bad” increased 1.1 percentage points to 29.3%. An increasing percentage of consumers also believe that business conditions will worsen over the next six months.

Current labor market conditions provide a glimmer of hope with consumers claiming jobs are “hard to get” down 0.7 percentage points to 36.2%, but future outlooks remain negative.

link

The article Consumer Confidence Down 12.2% for March originally appeared on Fool.com.

Y
ou can follow Justin Loiseau on Twitter, @TMFJLo, and on Motley Fool CAPS, @TMFJLo.
Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

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Source: FULL ARTICLE at DailyFinance

Home Prices Send Stocks Higher Despite Other Ominous Signs

By John Maxfield, The Motley Fool

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Blue-chip stocks are considerably higher today after data showed that home prices are continuing their upward ascent. According to Standard & Poor’s Case-Shiller home price index, prices increased in January by 8.1% on a year-over-year basis. Economists polled by Thomson Reuters had forecast a rise of 7.9%. On the heels of this, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up by 92 points, or 0.64%, with roughly an hour left in the trading session.

The news about home prices came amid a flurry of economic reports. Data released from the Department of Commerce today also showed that sales of new homes fell 4.6% last month to a seasonally adjusted 411,000. Economists had predicted a rate of 415,000. And in the same report, the number of new homes listed for sale increased to 152,000 at the end of February. That is the highest figure since 2011.

Shares of homebuilders are nevertheless lower. While prices are up, this is likely a reflection of the slight miss on new-home sales. Hovnanian is faring the worst, down 3% at the time of writing, followed by PulteGroup, KB Homes, and Toll Brothers, all of which are off by less than 1%.

Separately, a press release from the Conference Board, a private research group, suggests that confidence among U.S. consumers is waning. The firm’s consumer sentiment index declined to 59.7 in March, down from a revised reading of 68 in February. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had forecast a reading of 67.5.

According to Lynn Franco, the group’s director of economic indicators: “The loss of confidence, particularly expectations, mirrors the losses experienced this past December and January. The recent sequester has created uncertainty regarding the economic outlook and as a result, consumers are less confident.”

Needless to say, the news isn’t helping the Dow’s largest retail stock, Wal-Mart , which is down by 0.2% in afternoon trading. Paradoxically, however, as my colleague Morgan Housel has noted, there seems to be a loose inverse relationship between the strength of the overall economy and Wal-Mart’s same-store sales. If things continue to deteriorate, in turn, that could actually bode well for the retail giant.

Finally, orders for durable goods rose 5.7% last month. This was the highest level since September, and it follows a 3.8% drop the prior month, according to the Department of Commerce. As my colleague Dan Dzombak noted, there was particular strength in the transportation market, particularly with regard to aircraft, “where new orders jumped by 22%.”

With this in mind, it should be no surprise that shares of Boeing are soaring today. Additionally, as fellow Fool Dan Carroll observed, the aerospace company’s flagship 787 Dreamliner successfully completed a two-hour test flight to assess changes made to its battery. The state-of-the-art plane has been grounded since experiencing trouble with the batteries earlier this year.

Want to learn more about Boeing?
Boeing is a major player in a multitrillion-dollar market in which the opportunities are …read more
Source: FULL ARTICLE at DailyFinance

Leading Economic Index up 0.5%, but Sequestration Could Cut Growth

By Justin Loiseau, The Motley Fool

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The Conference Board Leading Economic Index rose 0.5% in February, to 94.8, according to a Conference Board report (link opens a PDF) released today. Following a revised 0.5% bump for January, these newest numbers squeaked past market expectations of a 0.4% rise.

The Leading Economic Index attempts to identify economic turning points by aggregating a variety of individual indicators. It uses 2004 as a benchmark 100 score, and dropped as low as 78 in 2009, and as high as 108 in 2006.

February’s report marks the third consecutive month of Index increases, and was boosted primarily by gains in financial components, building permits, and manufacturing workweek production. Lackluster results from new orders for non-defense capital goods and consumer expectations for business conditions kept any large economic expansion in check.

Although February‘s gains are optimistic, the Board warns that its most recent report hasn’t yet incorporated government spending cuts. Economist Ken Goldstein notes: ” The U.S. economy is growing slowly now, and with this reading increases hope that it may pick up some momentum in the second half of the year. However, this latest report does not yet capture the recent effects of sequestration, which could dampen the pickup in GDP.” 

The Federal Reserve released its most recent economic forecasts yesterday, which estimate GDP growth between 2.3% and 2.8% for 2013.

The article Leading Economic Index up 0.5%, but Sequestration Could Cut Growth originally appeared on Fool.com.

Y
ou can follow Justin Loiseau on Twitter, @TMFJLo, and on Motley Fool CAPS, @TMFJLo.
Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Copyright © 1995 – 2013 The Motley Fool, LLC. All rights reserved. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

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US consumers' outlook improved in late January

A survey released Friday shows Americans’ outlook for the economy perked up in late January, suggesting an improving job market may blunt the impact of higher taxes.

The University of Michigan’s final January survey of consumer sentiment rose to 73.8. That’s up from a preliminary reading of 71.3, released on Jan. 18. And it’s slightly better than December’s reading of 72.9.

The preliminary survey reflected consumers’ initial reaction to an increase in Social Security taxes, which took effect in early January. A separate survey from the Conference Board also showed consumer confidence fell in January because of the tax increase.

On Friday, the government said the economy added 157,000 jobs in January and hiring was stronger at the end of 2012 than previously thought.

The final Michigan survey, which included data collected after Jan. 18, showed consumers were more optimistic about their prospects for the next six months than they were in December. Still, their mood about current conditions declined from December.

Richard Curtin, chief economist for the survey, said the tax increase was the main reason consumers, particularly those from lower-income households, felt less confident about current conditions.

Social Security taxes rose after a 2 percent cut, in place for two years, expired Jan. 1. That means a person earning $50,000 a year will have about $1,000 less to spend in 2013. A household with two high-paid workers will have up to $4,500 less.

Economists said they were looking for modest improvements in consumer confidence in coming months as long as job growth keeps improving.

“After getting slammed in December, consumer confidence is starting to stabilize,” said Chris G. Christopher, senior economist at Global Insight.

Source: FULL ARTICLE at Fox US News