By 24/7 Wall St.
Filed under: Earnings, Market News, Banking, Personal Finance, Industry News, Consumer Goods, Economy, Investing
The Dow Jones Industrial Average hit a new high this week, and the new closing high is 14,253.77. We originally came up with a top price target for the DJIA of 14,590 for 2013 based upon our own DJIA analysis and methodology. We now expect that number to be surpassed, even if we have not officially raised the target. The reality is that by our take it will only require the top seven of the 30 DJIA stocks to perform this year for the DJIA to hit 15,000.
International Business Machines Corp. (NYSE: IBM), Chevron Corp. (NYSE: CVX), 3M Co. (NYSE: MMM), McDonald’s Corp. (NYSE: MCD), United Technologies Corp. (NYSE: UTX), Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE: CAT) and Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM) will likely be the seven stocks of the 30 DJIA components that lead the index to 15,000. At issue is that the DJIA is a price-weighted index that does not care about the market capitalization. These seven DJIA stocks account for 43% of the entire weighting of the 30 DJIA components.
For instance, General Electric Co. (NYSE: GE) has a $245 billion market cap, yet its $23.59 share price generates a weighing of only 1.27%. Then you have 3M Co. (NYSE: MMM) with a 5.63% weighting because its price is $104.45, and United Technologies Corp. (NYSE: UTX) has a 4.9% weighting in the DJIA because its price is $89.13. Combined, two these companies have a market cap of $159 billion. So GE is worth almost 150% of the market cap, but its weighting in the DJIA at 1.27% compares to the combined weighting of 10.73% for 3M and United Tech. Now you know how silly the DJIA can be as an index, even if investors are usually referring to the DJIA when they say “the market.”
If you took the bottom seven DJIA components, you barely get a 7% combined weighting in the DJIA. These stocks could all double in a static scenario, where the other stocks remain the same, and you would barely get close to the 15,000 mark.
A review at IndexArb.com shows just how much these weightings matter, with a cumulative weighting after each component:
1) IBM 11.13; 11.13
2) Chevron 6.35; 17.48
3) 3M 5.63; 23.11
4) McDonald’s 5.16; 28.27
5) United Technologies 4.90; 33.17
6) Caterpillar 4.86; 38.03
7) Exxon Mobil 4.83; 42.86
International Business Machines Corp. (NYSE: IBM) is at $206.53, against a 52-week range of $181.85 to $211.79. The consensus target price is $225.75, implying an expected gain of 9.3%. IBM‘s dividend yield is 1.7% but has been rising, and the company keeps buying back stock. Warren Buffett has bought a large stake that is likely to rise as well.
Chevron Corp. (NYSE: CVX) trades at $117.93, against a 52-week range of $95.73 to $118.53. Its consensus target price is $124.51, implying upside of 5.6%, and it has a 3.1% …read more
Source: FULL ARTICLE at DailyFinance