Tag Archives: Living Social

Is Groupon the Best Poorly Executed Idea Ever?

By Richard Saintvilus, The Motley Fool

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Well, it’s official: Groupon  CEO Andrew Mason finally got canned. Raise your hand if you did not see this one coming. It’s hard to discuss his accomplishments — which are very few, by the way — without acknowledging that three years ago, Mason turned down a $6 billion buyout offer from Google , which is more than twice Groupon’s current market cap. The company (then) felt it could do better. So, this gives you an idea of where this is going.

It’s a win-win-lose situation
Groupon’s story has been mixed since going public in November 2011, with a few ups and downs. However, over the past year, it’s hard to quantify how unimpressive, if not pathetic Mason’s leadership has been. During that span, he has been the poster child for how not every great idea can translate into a great business. And the odds of success are much worse with an inexperienced CEO, or according to Herb Greenberg, 2012’s worst CEO. The company had no chance.

Unfortunately, Groupon just realized how dim these odds were. But it just might be too late. Granted, Mason was no Steve Jobs, but there are still fundamental problems with this company that (once again) its recent earnings revealed. The concept of Groupon is sound. Mason figured out a way to truly give the “power to the people,” or groups, to create deals that benefit the companies and the customers, and in return Groupon took a cut of 40% to as much as 60% of the revenue. Indeed, customers and businesses got what they wanted. But Groupon created no competitive leverage.

No new markets, destined to fail
The beauty of this business, however, is that Groupon is able to profit while also connecting customers with businesses they otherwise might have never heard of. But here’s the problem, Groupon is working within an existing market — it’s not creating new ones. So how can it grow since theoretically, there’s a ceiling? This is what Mason failed to realize. Supporting existing markets can only take you so far. And besides, businesses that are already successful and well established have no need for Groupon.

What’s more, anyone can do it. How much would it cost to become the best “middle man?” And to invest in that business is, well, let’s just call it unwise, especially with Google and Facebook always one button away from putting you out of business. There’s no way Groupon can reach 1 billion users in the manner of Facebook, and Groupon doesn’t have a hope to achieve Google’s advertising dominance.

Likewise, consider Living Social, in which Amazon.com  has a 29% stake. It’s struggling to navigate the poor deals environment. But is it really just the environment, or the idea itself? The difference, though, is that Amazon is dominant outside of the deals business. The urgency is not there — at least not yet. And don’t discount that Amazon can sustain Living Social‘s business just long enough to …read more
Source: FULL ARTICLE at DailyFinance

Is Groupon Really a "Buy"???

By 24/7 Wall St.

Groupon

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Groupon, Inc. (NASDAQ: GRPN) is a troubled company under questionable leadership where IPO investors have been crushed. Long gone are the days of a $6 billion o $7 billion buyout offer from Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) back before this IPO. Groupon was raised to “Buy” from “Neutral” bt Stern Agee on Wednesday. We cannot help but wonder if this is really a long-term buy or whether this is just a chance to get out again at a higher price.

For starters, Stern Agee‘s Arvind Bhatia specifically said in the upgrade that this is not endorsement of a quarterly earnings report. His call is based upon the daily deals business is evolving  via a more constructive long-term view. The upgrade was based upon turning the international strategy around and leveraging its mobile efforts. The main assumption here is that Groupon can emerge beyond a push company that sends deals out to a model where consumers can start searching for more current deals. Bhatia thinks that Groupon’s share price can rise to $9.00.

The latter point here is one that has been a serious issue for Groupon. It used to be that you went to Groupon’s site and had to submit your email address if you were not logging in. Now it is more and more like the way that Living Social has been presenting its daily deals. Our take is that the Stern Agee upgrade is making this Groupon story one where consumers can directly go search for their deal. This is the evolution of the daily deal model into the “ongoing deal” category.

While what Stern Agee lists this as a turn right direction, we still have concerns that there are just no barriers to entry at all. Valuation is a concern as well as shares have now more than doubled off their 52-week low.

After a gain of 5.6% to $5.59 so far on Wednesday, the 52-week range is $2.60 to $20.63. As a reminder, Groupon’s IPO price was $20.00 per share.

Filed under: 24/7 Wall St. Wire, Analyst Calls, Consumer Goods, Consumer Product, Internet, Retail Tagged: GOOG, GRPN

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Source: FULL ARTICLE at DailyFinance