Tag Archives: IEA

Eliminating Energy Subsidies Could Reduce Emissions By 13 Percent

By Tim Worstall, Contributor This is an interesting little paper arguing that one of the simple things we could do to reduce (even if not quite beat) climate change is simply to stop subsidising the use of energy. In fact, they argue that eliminating such subsidies could lead to a reduction of 13% in energy related carbon emissions: We estimate that eliminating energy subsidies, including tax subsidies, would lead to a 13% reduction in energy-related carbon-dioxide emissions. The International Energy Agency has made similar noises before so they’re certainly along the right lines. However, the numbers here seem to be much higher than the IEA ones. And that’s for a slightly uncomfortable reason. The definition here of subsidies is very different from the one normally used. As such it’s difficult to take these specific conclusions all that seriously.

Source: FULL ARTICLE at Forbes Latest

Oil falls to near $93 on lower demand forecasts

Oil fell to near $93 a barrel Friday, dragged down by a combination of lukewarm forecasts for demand and sufficient supplies.

Benchmark oil for May delivery was down 33 cents to $93.18 per barrel at midday Bangkok time in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

The contract dropped $1.13 to finish at $93.51 a barrel on Thursday after the International Energy Agency lowered its forecast for global oil demand in 2013 by 45,000 barrels to 90.6 million barrels a day. Its predictions were similar to those made earlier this week by OPEC and the U.S. Energy Department.

Brent crude, which sets the price of crude used by many U.S. refineries to make gasoline, rose 2 cents to $104.40 a barrel on the ICE Futures exchange in London. Brent has dropped about 12 percent in the past two months amid Europe‘s ongoing financial crisis, increased supplies and tepid forecasts for demand.

“Concerns about European demand continue to weigh on the oil price,” said Michael Hewson of CMC Markets.

US inventories at their highest levels in years and the IEA lowering its forecasts for oil demand are pushing prices lower,” he said in a commentary.

In other energy futures trading on the Nymex:

— Heating oil rose 1 cent to $2.908 per gallon.

— Gasoline added 1.2 cents to $2.852 per gallon.

— Natural gas rose 1.2 cents to $4.151 per 1,000 cubic feet.

From: http://feeds.foxnews.com/~r/foxnews/world/~3/ywbQ4Re-kMI/

European Drop to Keep Global Demand for Oil in Check

By Justin Loiseau, The Motley Fool

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2013 is expected to be the third consecutive year of weak growth in global oil demand, according to the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) April Oil Market Report, a summary of which was released today.

The IEA highlighted what it anticipates will be the sharpest drop in European demand since 1985.

Worldwide, the IEA expects demand to increase by just 795,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2013. Countries outside the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development are predicted to drive growth with an additional 1.28 million-bpd demand, but a 480,000-bpd drop in OECD consumption will offset almost 40% of that gain in demand. In Europe, demand is expected to drop by 340,000 bpd, the weakest level since 1985.

On the other side of demand, the IEA expects non-OPEC supplies to increase 1.1 million bpd, driven largely by renewed exports from South Sudan. Although the IEA‘s press release does not list 2013 expectations for OPEC oil supplies, it does note that March supplies dropped 140,000 bpd due to disruptions in Nigeria, Libya, and Iraq.

The article European Drop to Keep Global Demand for Oil in Check originally appeared on Fool.com.

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From: http://www.dailyfinance.com/2013/04/11/european-drop-to-keep-global-demand-for-oil-in-che/

Midday Report: China Set to Surpass US as Top Importer of Oil

By DailyFinance Staff

Peruvian motorists provide emergency light for plane on runway - video screencap

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China could soon overtake the U.S. as the biggest importer of oil in the world. The oil cartel OPEC says the shift could happen as early as next year.

The reason is that the shale oil boom here at home has dramatically increased domestic production, reducing the need to import as much oil as we have been for the past several decades.

The U.S. based Energy Information Administration says Chinese imports could top 6 million barrels a day this year, while U.S. imports fall below that level next year.

Will this mean lower prices at the pump for American drivers? Probably not, say the experts.

Shale oil – produced from the controversial process known as fracking – is expensive, so prices are not likely to move dramatically.

However, the U.S. will be less reliant on other nations, especially OPEC countries. And that should make the U.S. less susceptible to big price swings when there is geopolitical unrest elsewhere around the world, or when OPEC tries to manipulate prices.

The U.S. has been the top oil importer for the past four decades, ever since domestic onshore production started to decline. But oil imports fell by 21 percent last year, as the U.S. produced 84 percent of its energy needs.

Domestic production is ramping up so quickly that the IEA now forecasts the U.S. will produce more oil than Saudi Arabia by 2020.

And while the U.S. reduces it dependence on OPEC, China is moving in the opposite direction. It’s requiring more and more imported energy to power its factories and cars, and economists say demand will continue to increase for the foreseeable future.

As for prices, crude oil has tumbled this week, as worldwide demand has weakened. And the price we pay at the gas station has stabilized. AAA says the national average for a gallon of regular now stands at $3.63. That’s down 10 cents from a month ago, and down 31 cents from last year at this time.

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Source: FULL ARTICLE at DailyFinance

Natural Gas Will Never Knock Out Coal

By Tyler Crowe, The Motley Fool

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Fans of Muhammad Ali should have an appreciation for the coal story. Much like the Rumble in the Jungle, where an older Ali faced a younger opponent in George Foreman, the coal industry has found itself up against a younger, cleaner opponent in natural gas. And despite the overwhelming odds in favor of the young upstart, coal, like Ali, is poised to come out of this fight as the reigning champion.

Let’s look at the scorecards and see why coal will take this fight in the long run.

The greatest in the world …
To look only at the U.S. and determine the prospects of coal would be very misleading. While low domestic gas prices have dragged the price of coal down with them, the same can’t be said overseas, for two distinct reasons:

  • Natural gas requires a much more robust infrastructure to be competitive, normally consisting of large pipeline networks and sophisticated liquefaction and regasification terminals, where coal can much more easily use existing roads, rail lines, and ports.
  • In several countries outside North America, natural gas prices are indexed to oil on a BTU equivalency. That has given North America a distinct advantage in selling natural gas, but it also enables coal to compete on the international stage much better than here.

Looking at the global market for coal, it appears there are no signs that natural gas will be able to take the title from coal. An International Energy Agency report back in January estimates that coal will pass oil as the most used energy source by 2017. In fact, the report projects that the U.S. will be the only country that will see its coal use decline between now and 2017. Just like almost every story in the energy space, the major drivers of demand will be China and India. Analysts project that the two countries’ total coal consumption for electricity generation will be almost double that of all member nations of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, combined. Furthermore, coking coal for steel production should see a substantial gain as well. Total steel demand between now and 2020 is expected to double in India and continue to grow steadily in China.

With so much demand headed overseas, several coal companies in the U.S. will need to boost their export capacity. Peabody Energy has a deal in place with Kinder Morgan Energy Partners to use its export terminal in the Gulf of Mexico and on the East Coast. This agreement will increase Peabody’s export capacity in the Gulf region to a range of 5 million to 7 million tons per year. Also, as one of the leading exporters of U.S. coal, Alpha Natural Resources has the export capacity for about 25 million tons per year, which provides it plenty of room to run, considering the company exported only 14 million tons in 2011.

… just not in the United States
Despite the exploding global demand, the IEA does …read more
Source: FULL ARTICLE at DailyFinance

IEA Lowers Oil Demand Forecast

By 24/7 Wall St.

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In the wake of yesterday’s OPEC oil market report, we have the latest monthly report from the International Energy Agency (IEA) today. While the two differ somewhat in specifics, the general story is the same. Global demand for crude will not grow as quickly as either OPEC or the IEA had originally forecast, and prices will be lower.

The IEA today lowered its forecast global demand growth to 820,000 barrels a day, or a total of 90.6 million barrels a day. Yesterday OPEC forecast demand growth of 800,000 barrels a day for a total of 89.7 million barrels a day.

According to the IEA, OPEC production rose by 150,000 barrels a day in February to 30.49 million barrels a day, due mainly to an increase in Iraqi production. Demand for OPEC crude fell by 100,000 barrels a day, due largely to refinery maintenance in the United States and Europe.

Non-OPEC production fell by 60,000 barrels a day in February to 54.1 million barrels a day, which is still 600,000 barrels a day higher than average 2012 production. The IEA forecasts non-OPEC supply to grow by 1.1 million barrels a day in 2013 to a total of 54.5 million barrels a day.

Whether demand will catch up with supply in 2013 is the big question. Given the weakness in the global economy, betting that crude demand will grow and prices will rise is no better than an even-money proposition.

For a better read than the forecasts from the IEA or OPEC, it is worth paying attention to the price of gasoline at New York Harbor and to compare that to the price of Brent and to the differential between Brent and West Texas Intermediate. Then look at the futures prices and the open interest on the futures market. In the early part of this year, commodities traders and refiners were selling gasoline futures and buying crude futures following the closing of the Hess Corp. (NYSE: HES) refinery. Once the gasoline stores were determined to be sufficiently supplied, crude buying slowed and prices fell.

Filed under: 24/7 Wall St. Wire, Economy, Oil & Gas, Research Tagged: HES

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Source: FULL ARTICLE at DailyFinance

Oil rise capped by varying demand estimates

The price of oil rose Thursday, but gains were limited by conflicting estimates for crude demand for 2013.

Benchmark oil for March delivery was up 10 cents to $97.11 per barrel at midday Bangkok time in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract dropped 50 cents Wednesday to finish at $97.01 a barrel on the Nymex after a U.S. government report showed an increase in U.S. oil supplies.

Crude supplies increased by 600,000 barrels, or 0.2 percent, to 696 million barrels, which is 9.8 percent above year-ago levels, the U.S. Energy Department’s Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report. The American Petroleum Institute, meanwhile, reported that crude inventory fell by 2.3 million barrels for the week ending Feb. 8. The API relies on voluntary reports from distributors and pipeline operators, while submissions for the government‘s report are mandatory.

The Paris-based International Energy Agency lowered its consumption forecast by 85,000 barrels a day compared with data from a month ago. The IEA expects the world to use 90.7 million barrels of crude oil a day this year. That is 1 million barrels a day more than OPEC‘s estimate, released Tuesday, of 89.7 million barrels a day. OPEC raised its 2013 forecast for global demand, citing signs of recovery in the global economy.

Analysts said oil prices have avoided dramatic fluctuations because of the difficulty in pinpointing what energy demand will be this year.

OPEC revised its demand outlook higher for 2013, while the IEA revised its demand outlook lower for the same period,” said Michael Hewson of CMC Markets, adding that oil prices have been “hemmed in by divergent views on the demand outlook for 2013.”

Brent crude, used to price international varieties of oil, was up 6 cents at $117.94 a barrel on the ICE Futures exchange in London.

In other energy futures trading on the Nymex:

— Wholesale gasoline rose 1.3 cents to $3.048 a gallon.

— Natural gas fell 0.6 cent to $3.298 per 1,000 cubic feet.

— Heating oil rose 0.2 cent to $3.208 a gallon.

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Source: FULL ARTICLE at Fox World News