Tag Archives: Fool Jeremy Bowman

The Economic Aftershocks of Hurricane Sandy

By Dan Newman, The Motley Fool

Filed under:

After Hurricane Sandy, there were several opinions that the storm would help boost the economy through spending to rebuild destroyed houses, businesses, transit, and other infrastructure. Fool Jeremy Bowman highlighted why these opinions were extremely wrong:

Economic activity for the sake of economic activity does nothing. If disasters like Sandy actually benefited the economy, then we could just go out and destroy houses on our own. There’s no need to wait for Mother Nature.

Now, a few months after the hurricane, we can sift through more data to see just how the storm affected the economy. And as the rational argument predicted, it did not benefit the economy.

Jobs
First, several thousands of workers lost wages. Take a look at the initial unemployment claims from New York and New Jersey following the October storm:

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York writes, “We estimate that roughly 160,000 initial unemployment claims filed in the two states during the month of November were related to Sandy, causing an unprecedented shock to the regional job market.” The sector hit the hardest, in terms of jobs, was leisure and hospitality. Using the less volatile payroll numbers taken from the second week of November, the New York Fed found that 32,000 jobs were lost; the difference between the numbers was attributed to a portion of the 160,000 filers finding new work or being able to return to their old jobs.

While the job levels are evening out over the long term, that short-term joblessness pushed plenty of incomes further into the future than expected. And, as any investor knows, money today is worth more than money tomorrow.

Future labor
In addition to today’s workers, the storm also disrupted tomorrow’s workers. All of New York City’s more than 1,700 public schools were shut down for a week, with more than 80 of the schools forced to wait even longer before admitting students and several others relocated farther away, affecting attendance. A week will probably not have much effect on the actual skills the kids learn, but with youth unemployment already a nagging issue, it doesn’t help.

Real-estate losses
For those who have to rebuild their homes, dealing with insurance claims can be aggravating. But even for those lucky enough to own an undamaged home in affected areas, average prices have declined by 10%. Additionally, new flood maps are requiring buildings to be updated and raised, lest owners face dramatically higher flood-insurance costs in a few years. As the New York Daily News reports, those who don’t comply with new building codes “can expect to pay a steep cost with insurance premiums around $9,500 a year … compared with $1,410 a year for a homeowner whose house is built at the recommended level.” And this means that more money will be paid to cover flood probabilities instead of going to savings, retirement funds, or other goods and services.

Insurance company losses
Even if Hurricane Sandy was a coast away, your insurance …read more
Source: FULL ARTICLE at DailyFinance

These Stocks Couldn't Maintain Momentum, Either

By Rich Duprey, The Motley Fool

Filed under:

All good things must come to an end. After seven straight days of gains, the S&P 500 finally lost four points. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, however, continued its string of up days, tacking on another three points to make it eight consecutive days of new highs.

As the Fool’s Jeremy Bowman pointed out the other day, a better economic outlook here at home is driving the market‘s euphoria while much of the rest of the world teeters on collapse. So don’t go running over the cliff with them like a bunch of lemmings: This could just be a temporary situation. Let’s first see whether they had good reason to fall, as panic-fueled routs can sometimes lead to excellent buying opportunities.

Company

% Change

Diamond Foods

(9.7%)

Perfect World

(8.8%)

Yandex

(8%)

That’s nuts
Last week nut grower Diamond Foods surged higher on no apparent news, which I suggested would end up being a short-term phenomenon because there was no fundamental basis for the rise. That was borne out by yesterday’s crash after Diamond reported earnings that were only in line with analyst expectations.

Despite having lost the Pringles brand to Kellogg following its accounting shenanigans debacle that led to a restatement of its financials, it’s still apparent Diamond Foods wants to be a snack-food player. Starting with its second-quarter results, it’s reporting in two segments now: nuts and snacks. The latter saw revenues rise 7% to $105 million, while nut revenues plummeted almost 30% as volumes cratered 37% from the year-ago period.

Yet it could have been so much more. Kellogg reported fourth-quarter earnings last month showing net sales soaring 18%, as Pringles drove most of the gains. As I noted at the time, “Without the acquisition, sales growth still would have come in at 5.3%, its biggest gain in more than a year, but it shows what Diamond could have enjoyed had it won the brand.” The stock is down almost 12% now from its recent highs.

Game over?
Chinese Web games operator Perfect World also reported earnings the other day in line with expectations, but its outlook for the future is what sank the stock yesterday. It projected first-quarter sales to come in between 592 million yuan, or about $95 million at current exchange rates, to 619 million yuan, which is well below the 643 million yuan consensus estimate of analysts.

Management contends, though, that it’s investing in the future of its business, so that while it makes current-period results weaker than anticipated, it will pay off later on. Perfect World decelerated its in-game promotional activities and focused instead on its pipeline as well as content enhancements for its existing titles, but the market apparently didn’t buy into that argument.

I’ve noted on numerous occasions I’m not a fan of the free-to-play/pay-to-play-more online gaming business model, and I believe the moves by …read more
Source: FULL ARTICLE at DailyFinance