Tag Archives: Value Investing

Investors Still Like Bonds, Even as Stock Market Surges

By The Associated Press

dow jones stocks rally bonds

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Richard Drew/AP

By MARK JEWELL and MATTHEW CRAFT

Market pros call it the Great Rotation. That’s the long-awaited scenario when investors take their money out of bonds and sink it into stocks.

It was the buzzword this month when the Dow Jones industrial average (^DJI) reached a record high. The idea was that investors were confident enough in the economy to shed their financial crisis fears and leave the safety of bonds.

But it’s not happening.

Money keeps flowing into bonds. Industry consultant Strategic Insight says U.S. bond mutual funds have attracted $64 billion in cash in the first two months of the year, just below last year’s pace of $68 billion over the same period.

Stock mutual funds had net deposits of $76 billion through February, according to the consultancy. While that is up sharply from $14 billion a year earlier, the cash for stocks is not coming at the expense of bonds, according to more recent snapshots of investment flows.

Instead, investors are withdrawing from money-market funds, which are often used as a parking spot for cash, according to EPFR Global.

“The expectations of a big exodus from bonds are way overblown,” says David Santschi, CEO of TrimTabs Investment Research, a fund-tracking firm.

A stock market crash and recession have made bonds especially appealing since 2008, when the nation was in the throes of the financial crisis. The abundance of buyers has pushed bond prices up and sent yields lower, reducing interest payments to investors.

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Even with low yields, bonds will continue to attract retiring baby boomers and others who want reliable income for daily expenses. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note — a benchmark — is hovering under 2 percent. Other types offer higher yields. Investment-grade corporate bonds yield 3 percent and riskier “junk” bonds yield just under 6 percent.

Money-market funds, meanwhile, yield 0.02 percent.

Still, the Dow’s record surge is drawing more attention to stocks.

The blue-chip index broke through its all-time high March 5 and kept climbing. It’s up nearly 11 percent this year and 122 percent from its bottom in March 2009. The broader Standard & Poor’s 500 index (^GSPC) is up 9 percent and is close to breaking its own record.

Investors added $8 billion to U.S. stock funds and exchange-traded funds in February. And they’re putting in more cash this month, as $12 billion flowed into stock funds and ETFs through Tuesday, according to EPFR Global.

Bond funds, including ETFs, have pulled in nearly $8 billion this month.

Much of the money flowing into stocks and bonds has come out of money-market funds. About $32 billion has been pulled out of money funds this month, according to EPFR Global.

Withdrawals that didn’t …read more
Source: FULL ARTICLE at DailyFinance

BofA/ML Analyst Upgrades Zynga as Uncommon Value

By 24/7 Wall St.

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zynga-logoZynga Inc. (NASDAQ: ZNGA) is no longer a very loved company. The social game maker has lost its favorable outlook largely as it and Facebook Inc. (NASDAQ: FB) try to distance themselves from each other. So when you see an analyst upgrading the stock, it may raise some eyebrows.

Bank of America/Merrill Lynch raised its rating to Buy from Neutral, citing Zynga’s asset value and mobile stabilization. Its price target was raised to $3.40 from $2.70.

The firm does caution:

While our upgrade could be early with bookings expected to decline quarter over quarter in the first quarter, and our below-Street 2013 estimates, we are upgrading Zynga to Buy due to the following: 1) valuation now reflects downside risk to bookings with $2.20/share in cash over assets, a $200 million per year poker business, and $150 to $200 million mobile business likely supporting the stock; 2) ZNGA‘s mobile trends may have stabilized (per comScore user data), and for PC there is option value for an inflection in players in 2013 driven by new categories (gambling and core); 3) recent 60-day performance of ANGI, FB, GRPN, and P suggest investors’ risk tolerance with developing business models has increased; and, 4) FB‘s 10-K disclosure suggests $15 to $25 million upside to fourth quarter guidance and our prior bookings estimate.

BofA also noted that social gaming trends remain weak and bookings may not bottom in 2013.

While BofA has raised its fourth-quarter estimates, the firm is still below Wall St.’s consensus in 2013. The firm is raising its 2013 total bookings estimate to $895 million from $825 million, EBITDA to $20 million from -$45 million, and adjusted “LPS” to $0.09 from $0.15. Its revenue projection for 2013 is $980 million, versus $1.06 billion.

Filed under: 24/7 Wall St. Wire, Analyst Calls, Internet, Media, Value Investing, Video Games Tagged: FB, ZNGA

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Source: FULL ARTICLE at DailyFinance