By Paul Roderick Gregory, Contributor   The most significant geopolitical events of the past half century have been unanticipated. Not that we did not expect them, but they were supposed to happen in the distant future, not now.  The North Korean regime could collapse in the same unexpected way, leaving shocked politicians, diplomats, and pundits to fend with its consequences. While it is comforting to believe that predictable rational calculation and self interest determine the course of human events, the most significant changes in the world order are heavily influenced by chance, personalities, emotions, and miscalculations. We expect the two Koreas to muddle along in a shaky equilibrium that will result in the end of  the Hermit Kingdom in the distant future. A collapse of the North Korean regime in the near term would send pundits in vain searches of past writings for hints they saw it coming. Unfolding events in the Koreas and their respective mentor states, the United States and China, resemble the run ups to the collapse of communism in the USSR and Central and Southeastern Europe and the reunification of the two Germanys. Few foresaw that both would collapse as abruptly as a house of cards. The intelligence community did not foresee the end of the USSR – an intelligence failure greater than its weapons-of-mass-destruction fiasco.  Likewise, it will likely categorize the near-term collapse of the North Korean regime as a “highly unlikely” outcome. The “fundamentals” explain why regimes change and collapse, but they tell us less about the all-crucial “when.” If the Soviet and East Germany political and economic systems had been sound, they would be with us today. The North Korean fundamentals could not be more terrible – a closed society unable to provide  its population with subsistence, but it has survived as such for decades. Mikhail Gorbachev had no intention of setting in motion events that would lead to the collapse of the USSR and its client states. His goal was to repair the Soviet system not end it. Gorbachev would not have begun Perestroika had he known its consequences – one of history’s great miscalculations. Reagan was the first American President who believed that a near-term Soviet collapse was possible, and he did not hesitate to say so. It fell to Reagan’s successor, George Bush, to actually manage the disintegration of the Soviet Union, after his first incredulity wore off. The leadership of the German Democratic Republic also intended to save East-German communism with salami-sliced concessions, which kept growing larger and larger to their dismay.  The East German politburo had German Chancellor Helmut Kohl as their counterpart. When the opportunity presented itself, Kohl was there with instantaneous and irreversible reunification. Kohl did not dither when the opportunity presented itself. The two Koreas represent a tinder box in search of a random spark.  Both have new and untested leaders, each intent on reshaping the relationship between the two countries in their own way. Both appear unwilling to ramp down the rhetoric or be seen as caving to the

From: http://www.forbes.com/sites/paulroderickgregory/2013/04/14/korean-unification-do-not-be-surprised-if-it-comes-soon/