Whether or not you realize it, the world really caught a break in 2003. That was the year that the mutated H5N1 virus — known more loosely as the avian flu virus — spread rapidly from China to other countries in southeastern Asia, and eventually Europe and Africa, despite the best efforts of these countries to quarantine those believed to have contracted H5N1. All told, the virus killed flocks of birds, many pigs, and claimed the lives of 360 humans.

But, the reality is that it could have been much, much worse. Thankfully for researchers scrambling for a cure, the H5N1 virus in 2003 presented a clear-as-day indicator for the world to see — it occasionally caused the death of its host (i.e. birds and pigs). Identifying infected flocks was as easy as spotting where the dead birds and pigs were.

This time, researchers may not be so lucky.

Over the past couple of days, we’ve been privy to new information that a mutated avian influenza virus, known as H7N9, has been identified in China as the direct cause of death of three humans while sickening nine others. Although the World Health Organization asserts in these early stages of research and discovery that there’s no evidence of human-to-human transmission, clearly people in the region, and around the world, are on guard.

The flu: A most inexact science
The most obvious reason for concern is that the avian bird flu strain H7N9, and even H5N1 for that matter, are flu strains that are treated more on a reactive than proactive basis.

Truth be told, there is no way that researchers can predict exactly what strain is going to be prevalent during the current flu season, or how those strains will react with other strains. This also includes how these strains will react among different mammals and whether or not they develop resistances to existing medications. Forecasting the severity of the flu and the types of strains that will strike humans is a completely inexact science that’s done based on the best information available by researchers at the time.

This is one of the primary reasons why flu shot vaccination rates in the U.S. remain well below the levels that the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention would like to see. If you recall, when I examined the risks and benefits of getting a flu shot two weeks ago, the biggest takeaway was that it was worth getting the shot, but that the odds of the shot preventing the flu was nothing more than hit-or-miss.

The same goes for the emergence of the H7N9 virus. Researchers know very little about the virus at this moment outside of the fact that they believe it manifests itself in birds. However, unlike H5N1, the mutated H7N9 virus does not necessarily make them ill. That presents a very serious problem for quarantine purposes, because unless every bird is physically tested for the H7N9 virus — a daunting …read more

Source: FULL ARTICLE at DailyFinance