The kidnapping of seven foreign workers in Nigeria claimed by an Islamic extremist group has touched a nerve in Europe, coming just weeks after the tragic end of a hostage drama in Algeria in which 37 gas plant workers and 29 al Qaida-linked militants died. But analysts say the similarities probably end there and it’s too early to know how this latest crisis will play itself out.
A group that calls itself Ansaru issued a short statement about the kidnapping in northern Nigeria over the weekend, hinting at political motivations for snatching what Nigerian authorities say are one British citizen, one Greek, one Italian, three Lebanese and one Filipino.
But Ansaru did not make any demands, and analysts warn that if recent history is any indication, the hostage situation probably will not be resolved in a flash.
“What is likely to happen is some kind of drawn-out period — weeks or months — on how to maneuver to safeguard the lives of these hostages while not giving in to ransom demands,” said Mark Schroeder, vice president of Africa analysis at Stratfor, a U.S.-based private global intelligence firm.
Governments and analysts have long warned about the risk of kidnapping in northern Nigeria. More broadly, the Sahel region of Africa has seen scores of kidnappings involving foreigners — some held for years. On Tuesday, French officials said that seven French citizens, including four children, have been kidnapped in Cameroon and are believed to have been taken to Nigeria.
The situation is very different in Algeria, where the army moved in after a standoff lasting just four days to end the crisis at the Ain Amenas complex.
Virginia Comolli, a research associate focused on extremism at London’s International Institute for Strategic Studies, noted that Algeria wanted to “send a very strong message” to hostage takers and display a no-nonsense, hard-fisted approach.
“The Nigerians would not want to jeopardize the relationship they have with the Brits,” Comolli said, pointing to the country’s longstanding relationship with Britain on counterterrorism. “They want to be careful. If they were to act without consulting with their British counterparts it would definitely not go down well.”
Western governments also might not have the confidence in local Nigerian security forces to carry out an advanced hostage rescue operation and will likely mobilize their own security forces and agents. But going in …read more
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