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Deutsche Bank Says Buy the Enduring Eight Tech Stocks (CSCO, EMC, HPQ, IBM, INTC, MSFT, NTAP, ORCL)

By 24/7 Wall St.

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During the bull market for technology stocks in the 1990s, investors eagerly awaited the quarterly results from the large-cap technology leaders. The personal computer was being totally integrated into the home and business environment and pricing was more competitive with each passing year. In a new research report, Deutsche Bank A.G. (NYSE: DB) says its time for investors to own the “Enduring Eight” big-cap technology leaders again.

With business fundamentals expected to improve in 2013, corporate spending is expected to follow suit. The analysts at Deutsche Bank expect an upturn in tech business spending in 2013, after a flattish 2012, as growth picks up and confidence improves. Companies have been frugal in their information and technology budgets, and their IT infrastructure has aged. Gartner forecasts around 5% annual growth inĀ information technology (IT) spending from 2013 to 2016, led by storage and software.

One key reason cited for purchasing the large-cap tech leaders is that, in the Deutsche Bank view, large multinational companies treat the global tech giants as key operational partners and not mere vendors. The long-term and global relationships these tech leaders have with customers are part of their ability to endure the challenges of a dynamic and competitive industry – a key difference from consumer tech products. In addition, these companies are already key players in big data, cloud and mobility, the main drivers of business IT spending

These are the Deutsche Bank enduring eight tech stocks to buy:

Networking leader Cisco Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: CSCO) currently is trading near the $20 level. The Wall St. consensus estimate target for Cisco is $26.

Storage giant EMC Corp. (NYSE: EMC) makes the list. It is trading at what appears to be a support level of $23. The Thomson/First call price target is $30.

Hewlett-Packard Co. (NYSE: HPQ) is the only personal computer company to make the grade. It closed last Friday at $20.15, and the consensus target is lower at $17.50.

International Business Machines Corp. (NYSE: IBM), the leader in IT products and services worldwide, has a consensus price target of $230. The stock closed Friday at $202.91.

Semiconductor giant Intel Corp. (NASDAQ: INTC) is the only chip company to make the Deutsche Bank list. The stock closed Friday at $21.03 and has a consensus price target of $23.00.

Windows software maker Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT) also makes the Deutsche Bank list. The stock closed Friday at $27.95 and has a consensus target of $33.

Network storage solution leader NetApp Inc. (NASDAQ: NTAP) is trading near $33.95, which is way below the 52-week high of $46.80. The consensus price target is $40.

Application software giant Oracle Corp. (NASDAQ: ORCL) rounds out the enduring eight list. Trading close to its 52-week high at $34.63, it has a consensus price target of $38.

The analysts at Deutsche Bank point out that while growth disappointed in 2012, it should be better in 2013. Over the cycle, tech’s enduring eight have generated healthy growth, which has yet to be fully appreciated by investors. From 2006 to 2012, average …read more
Source: FULL ARTICLE at DailyFinance

Using Black Swan and Antifragile Analysis for Tech Stocks (UBS, VMW, CRM, AAPL, FB, LNKD, HPQ, NTAP, FIO, IBM, EMC)

By 24/7 Wall St.

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Nassim Taleb is well known for his work as a trader and professor, as well as the author of the book ” Black Swan.” He often concentrates his work on market volatility and the likelihood of extreme situations or occurrences that can radically move stock prices. The 9-11 attacks on the World Trade Center were a black swan event, devastating and totally unpredicted. His new book “Antifragile” focuses on things that gain from disorder. Are there tech stocks that can gain from disorder as well?

The tech analysts at UBS A.G. (NYSE: UBS) decided it would be interesting to apply some of the principles of Taleb’s book to tech stocks they cover. They point out in their report released today that Taleb advises using optionality to your advantage in finding situations with limited downside but undetermined upside. What matters is not the frequency of being right but the magnitude when you are correct. Also, to favor a barbell approach, both in specific companies that avoid the mushy middle of markets and in your portfolio by mixing low and high-risk assets.

Fragile things hate volatility and uncertainty, while the antifragile thrives on it. The UBS team believes that technology stocks, especially large caps, are inherently fragile, given that the industry structure changes every 15 years or so. They looked for companies riding emerging trends, and point to VMware Inc. (NYSE: VMW) and Salesforce.com Inc. (NYSE: CRM) as examples.

Vendors creating new product categories also scored high as antifragile. This category included names like tech giant Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL), social media leader Facebook Inc. (NASDAQ: FB) and business networking site operator LinkedIn Corp. (NYSE: LNKD).

One area that the spectrum of fragility did not favor as well was information technology (IT). The UBS analysts pointed out that computing as a service may present more risk than upside for many of the names that they cover. In their coverage universe, they consider Hewlett-Packard Co. (NYSE: HPQ) particularly fragile, given its size and share losses. They also see NetApp Inc. (NASDAQ: NTAP) as caught in the middle as it remains concerned about Fusion-io Inc.’s (NYSE: FIO) niche status. However, International Business Machines Corp. (NYSE: IBM) and EMC Corp. (NYSE: EMC) scored much better and are well-positioned large vendors.

At the end of the day, technology in always changing and evolving. Companies that look to past successes and not to future growth often can find themselves in the stock graveyard. Antifragile tech stocks might be the way to protect a portfolio from rapid technology and consumer shifts.

Filed under: 24/7 Wall St. Wire, Analyst Calls, Technology, Technology Companies, Telecom & Wireless Tagged: AAPL, CRM, EMC, FB, FIO, HPQ, IBM, LNKD, NTAP, UBS, VMW

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Source: FULL ARTICLE at DailyFinance