GDP data Wednesday is expected to show a slow-moving, zombie-like economy, as the Fed meets for a second day.
Many economists expect second quarter growth to be paltry, less than one percent, and some think that data could help shape the Fed’s thinking if it’s even weaker than expected. The first quarter grew at a 1.8 percent rate.
The Fed meanwhile, isn’t expected to say much new when its meeting ends. The 2 p.m. Eastern time statement isn’t seen altering what Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke has already said about the Fed’s plans to taper bond purchases before the end of the year. But it may adjust its comments to reflect a temporary slowing of the economy. The Fed, and many economists, expect a stronger growth rate in the second half of the year.
“[Wednesday] is an action-packed today. It’s one of those weird ones where it’s so action-packed, what if it is a dud?” said George Goncalves, Treasury strategist at Nomura Americas. “We have all these high expectations — GDP, revisions to GDP, ADP, the Treasury going to announce at 8:30 their intentions for borrowing. We have the Fed later on.”
It is also the end of the month, and that could make markets more volatile as traders square positions. For July, the S&P 500 is up five percent, bringing its year to date gain to 18.2 percent, The Dow was up four percent in July so far. Markets Tuesday were in a wait-and-see mode ahead of the Fed’s announcement Wednesday. The Dow Jones industrial average (^DJI) edged 1 point lower to 15,520 and the S&P 500 (^GSPC) rose less than a point to 1,685.
The 10-year Treasury note was at 2.61 percent Wednesday. Traders are watching that yield level, as a move higher could take the market to a potential nervous zone for stocks.
“We’ve had a little bit of a backup in yields. [Month end] could amplify whatever’s happening toward the end of the day,” Goncalves said.
“I think GDP will be constructive. I think it’s still coming in on the weak side. The Fed will react to it by not being too hawkish. Then we’re going to quickly turn our attention to [nonfarm payrolls] on Friday,” he said. The Fed has said it would base its tapering decisions on economic data , and it is particularly focused on employment so some traders expect to get more new information from the jobs data than the Fed statement.
The 8:30 a.m. Eastern time GDP release is also be important because the government will release revisions in the data going back to 1929. It last issued massive revisions in 2009. “It’s clear the level of GDP is going to be higher by …read more
Source: FULL ARTICLE at DailyFinance